If the crowd calendar for HS is a 2, do I still need to get there before park open to make sure I get a boarding group for Rise?
Yep. BGs are gone in like 2 minutes after park opens (unless you want to risk a backup BG).
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Even when the crowd is that low?
Yep - I was there on a CL 1 day and got my BG at 7:26 and it was a BBG that wasn’t called until 3:30 - and it was a day with no ride shut downs whatsoever.
For the time being, only the “truly dedicated” will have any chance of riding it.
For our May trip, I will be waking everyone up at 5:30 am on our HS day. 
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FYI – A common misconception about Touring Plans Crowd Levels is that they are an indicator of the number of people in each park. However, they are an indicator of average queue waits at the rides in that park during 11am – 5pm.
Correct. Right now an insane amount of people are rope dropping HS just for the RotR BG. This has had a side effect of elevated wait times in the mornings whereas park usually have high wait times from mid-morning to late afternoon. That’s why Touring Plans bases their crowd calendar by wait times from 11:00 a.m. to 5 p.m. Recent reports have crowds dispersing in the early and mid afternoon with early evening crowds very light. Saw a report a couple days ago where SDD had a 40 minute wait around 7 p.m.
I’ve realized, both from reports and from my own data, that at the moment the HS rope drop CL is going to be much higher than the predicted CL for the day. I don’t think that TPs are going to be accurate there for the time being.
On Sunday morning for the first few hours waits for everything were double what was in my TP, but then in the evening they were pretty close.
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