I really like how you evaluated what risk levels were “worth it” independently. It doesn’t need to be all or nothing. It really perplexes me the number of people that can’t seem to fathom that risk is cumulative.
I’ve heard so many people use logic like…
“well, I already did X, and Y has roughly the same risk as X, so since I already did X, it doesn’t matter if I do Y” …or…
“I did X and was fine, so therefore if I do Y, I will also be fine”
Dice rolls, people, it’s all dice rolls. We still have a lot more control over both the number of times we roll the dice AND the number of sides on the dice than many people will acknowledge. And I get it. We’re all tired of dealing with this. But that doesn’t mean real risks and regrets aren’t there.
I think we’re going to lose the bulk of it, unfortunately. From what I hear, the recent debt ceiling negotiation clawed back a lot of Covid funding that hadn’t been “committed” yet. But I haven’t heard details on what exactly that means. But for those that hoped our public health infrastructure was going to be strengthened long term by Covid investment, I’m not sure it will be significantly, if at all.
I really hope next generation vaccines and long Covid treatments aren’t in the clawback.
There is s huge sample size for this study with first infections which makes this figure very meaningful.
I think the administration wants to keep this study quiet (or at least not publicize it widely). The results of this study should have been published everywhere.
Me too. My mother in law said … DD7 doesn’t mask in school with 20 kids so why won’t you come to the party at my house for 20 some people. She said it is the same thing. (Aside from the fact that the school has (a) a HEPA filter in each class and (b) a new ventilation system that brings in 25% outside air) … risk is cumulative.
With the poor air quality in the NJ/NYC area caused by drifting smoke from Canadian forest fires, I’ve turned on my indoor air purifiers that I bought for COVID. They’re actually rated for smoke and even the lowest fan setting does a good job of banishing the smell from my house. Outside it smells like the neighbor has a wood campfire.
Should we start a betting pool of how long until this gets declared the “new normal” and people just nod and go about their business as usual? Maybe 2 years?
It would be interesting to capture the air quality data and types of warnings being issued right now and compare it to what happens over time.
Waiting to see how weird things get before officially declaring the bingo card item(s). Feel like we’ve come full circle with 2020 starting off with the Australian wildfires.
I don’t think am official announcement has been made yet, but people are starting to talk like this is a done deal. Andy Slavitt speaks highly of Cohen.
I haven’t been paying attn much to any covid stuff lately, but I’d really like to know when I might be able to get a new booster. I’m late 40s with no extenuating conditions, so the last one I had was…maybe last fall? I am (finally, fingers crossed). going on my first cruise in mid Sept and would really like to have a booster before I go.
My take on the situation from digesting numerous sources:
Globally (as a whole, albeit there are still “hot spots”) and in the US, deaths are the lowest they’ve been pretty much since this mess started. We’ll probably need at least another year to reach a somewhat firm understanding of what “endemic” (i.e., occurring predictably) looks like.
Long Covid can range from mild to devastating. Risk rates along that continuum are still TBD. There are still no treatments, but there are trials underway. Don’t expect “cures” anytime soon. Some people recover spontaneously. Some don’t. There is little data on the risks of multiple repeat infections.
From YLE’s summary, she gave the impression that the new fall boosters aren’t far enough along in the process yet for ACIP to put out their guidelines yet, but . Maybe we’ll at least have a better idea of timing based on what is said at that meeting though.
One thing to note on timing. With the initial vaccinations, there was pretty solid data from the start that it takes about 2 weeks for the immune system to get fully revved up following vaccination. But, there was eventually also some limited data that one might actually be more susceptible to catching Covid during that two week window than one was prior to vaccination. (Initially, they thought people were just adopting a more risky lifestyle before the immunity had fully kicked in, but that started looking more like an assumption than data-based.). However, I haven’t seen any data about that with the updated boosters, but it is a possibility to keep in mind. FWIW, 2 of my kids caught Covid last fall about a week after their bivalent boosters. But that is just anecdotal evidence so YMMV.
Here is the logic difference it could make in timing…
Scenario:
“Boosters just came out and in a few days I am leaving on a 2 week trip. I’d rather not come down with Covid during my trip.”
Logic where one isn’t more susceptible during that 2 weeks:
“Even though I won’t have full protection, it’s still better to get the booster before I go because I will have increasing immunity throughout the trip.”
Logic where one is more susceptible during that 2 weeks:
“It’s better for me to wait to get the booster until I get back so my immunity isn’t in rebuilding mode or whatever during the trip.”
The least dubious solution for either possibility is to get the booster over 2 weeks before the trip AND to be extra cautious in the 2 weeks following the booster.
But, if the timing of the booster release is such that one can’t get it at least 2 weeks prior to a trip or another occasion of higher risk and/or more undesirable time to get sick, then it will be worth looking into the latest data on whether that 2 week window is thought to be most risky.
Thanks so much for this! It is a lot to think about. My trip is 2 full weeks and I reallllly don’t want to get sick. I don’t want to be quarantined on board the ship (although it seems that that is a lot less likely than a year ago). I also just don’t want to feel sick on a trip, esp a solo one. I’m going to try not to do a lot of social things with crowds leading up to the trip and will get the flu shot if it comes out early enough. I think it will b/c I leave Sept 18.
I am also kind of worried that people will hassle me onboard for having a mask on, but really I think most people will just be concerned with their own good time and ignore me. I’m only going to mask in crowded indoor spaces but on a cruise ship that could be most places (it’s a cold weather cruise so I don’t know yet how much time I’ll spend on the ship outdoors). I got a balcony so I could enjoy sitting there watching the ocean and into / out of ports without a mask. This particular cruise also has a port almost every day.
Bingo card check…Texas roads buckling from heat…and it’s only June… (I’ve been here over 30 years, and I don’t recall ever seeing this many buckling incidents happening together.)
