Coronavirus Outbreak: Part 3

:flushed: Well. This is going to be controversial.

https://twitter.com/drcaliff_fda/status/1562837774645878785?s=21&t=fkN55VHwRrCQXdwhyBP4EQ

IIRC, part of the June discussion was that VRBPAC would want to see the latest data before issuing a recommendation. It wasnā€™t a blanket recommendation to proceed with the bivalent with no further input from them. :face_with_peeking_eye:

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https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fseekingalpha.com%2Fnews%2F3876262-updated-covid-19-boosters-likely-to-be-discussed-at-cdc-advisors-meeting-next-week

Looking for an agendaā€¦

ETA: I think ACIP actually can discuss the boosters, I think itā€™s just that they canā€™t vote on a recommendation prior to the FDA EUA. IIRC, I think that happened with one of the original Covid vaccines for one of the age groups. The ACIP discussed on the first day, the FDA EUA came out that evening, then ACIP voted the second day.

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@PrincipalTinker Did they recently add ads here to the forums? My phone is really struggling to load the thread today and ads are popping up repeatedly and they or other portions of the thread keep reloading? Or does my phone have an issue?

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They are definitely testing ads. I have a weird banner pop up between threads occasionally and the other day i had a full blown popup ad come up taking up 1/4 of the screen and blocking the reply buttons on a post.

Eta this is what I see clicking between threads now

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They are testing this weekend for a new non-subscriber ad feature

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Lol. My subscription expires Sept 2. No trips planned so I was debating renewing it. Yā€™all planned it that way, right? :crazy_face:

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See if being signed in (sign out first) helps.

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@amvanhoose_701479 I thought this was interesting that BA.5 has stalled in NC while B1.1.529 is having a resurgence. This is through week ending 8/13. The data released this week shows a large decrease in all indicators being tracked, especially wastewater.

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That is really interesting!

Iā€™m sure there are more, but two different possibilities occur to me right offā€¦

  1. That B1.1.529 got into one or more communities that BA.5 (and the other variants more transmissible than B1.1.529) werenā€™t present in, so it didnā€™t need to compete head to head with them.

  2. That B1.1.529 and BA.5 do not provide much immunity against each other. I think thereā€™s already pretty decent evidence B1.1.529 doesnā€™t provide robust protection against infection from BA.5, thus the number of short term reinfections. However, if the opposite is also true, then people could just ping pong being reinfected between B1.1.529 and BA.5, which would be yet another sticky wicket.

I hope someone there is looking at it at a zip code level because that would give a lot of info, I think!

Itā€™s good cases are coming down overall though. They are here too.

Hereā€™s something else interesting. Our wastewater peak for our BA.5 wave was almost as high as for our original Omicron wave. But at the positive cases peak, there were less than 1/4 as many, meaning a lot more unreported cases. So assuming there arenā€™t other factors that cause the wastewater peaks to fluctuate, if we were only catching something like 1 in 5 cases in the first Omicron wave, then we only caught something like 1 in 20 in this last one. Yet another data point for risk calculations. :persevere:

image

But hospitalizations werenā€™t nearly as high in the latest wave and are also coming down. Which is likely a combinations of several factors. Increasing immunity wall from vaccinations and/or prior infections (yay! ā€¦but waning is boo!), increasing access to early intervention treatments like Paxlovid (yay!), even if itā€™s not significantly ā€œmilderā€ at least BA.5 wasnā€™t worse (yay!), and survivor bias where unfortunately weā€™ve lost a lot of the most vulnerable (boo!).

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Me, too! I was like, oh crap, now I gotta renew.

While Iā€™ve got you here, I caught the Texas LL catcher catch a ball off a bat right on the helmet, about forehead level. And he was still trying to go after the ball. Heā€™s a trouper. Hurt so bad he was crying - on national TV. Went back to catching tho he seemed a bit wary.

For a brief moment in time I was a catcher. I definitely would have had trouble catching after that. But I was in high school - bit different than 12 yr olds.

Hope heā€™s OK.

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Us too! They pulled him after that inning, so Iā€™m assuming they ran him through concussion protocols but I havenā€™t heard anything so hopefully thatā€™s a good sign. Theyā€™re doing a welcome home celebration for them next Thursday.

Andā€¦bingo card checkā€¦apparently the latest ā€œportalā€ over China is iridescent rainbow?

https://weather.com/news/weather/video/spectacular-rainbow-cloud-seen-over-southern-china

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Iā€™m completely terrified b/c my countyā€™s public school system is short 900 teachers starting this school year. According to wikipedia this county employs about 9,200 teachers, so thatā€™s a huge percentage. My kids are still in private, but we were in these public schools not long ago, and we need to return there in the future. We might move for a different school system but Iā€™m not at all convinced that 1) the shortage would be any less there and 2) that the schools we research will turn out to be what we think they are once weā€™ve actually moved., with this sort of problem going on And last year it was just a bus driver shortage. I havenā€™t heard about that yet here b/c the public schools mostly havenā€™t started, but friends in other places are already having problems b/c a child is never able to get on the bus at a reasonable time. I donā€™t blame anyone for not wanting to be a teacher or bus driver right now. It sounds incredibly difficult.

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Info from the AAP:

https://twitter.com/ameracadpeds/status/1563241280741994496?s=21&t=fqw0b1ImkUgUQ4XdPB3Saw


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I will say I donā€™t think the school staffing shortage has anything to do with the current Covid protocols.

Higher ED teacher prep programs do not seem to have enough students currently enrolled to address this issue short term.

Many educators have left the profession. In many places, low pay is not the issue.

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I do find it interesting that our overwhelmingly number one referral reason is speech delay with our Early Intervention right now. There are many factors it could be (parents working from home and not being able to put in the time, little peer interaction due to the pandemic, etc), but I wouldnā€™t completely dismiss masks for some kids. There are different reasons for speech delays and some of them have to do with motor planning. For those kids, it is important for them to see the speakerā€™s mouth.

I went to back to the school nights for my kids this week. A few teachers wore masks, but I saw very few masks on anyone else. The schools are bringing back all kinds of prepandemic activities and field trips this year.

The only time I wear masks at this point is in my familiesā€™ homes for work. A lot of people in this area have moved on. You see masks here and there and no one seems to care who is doing what at this point. You do you seems to be the situation. People are getting ill, but Iā€™m hearing of all kinds of illnesses. Those getting Covid report feeling like it is a cold or mild flu. I havenā€™t gotten anything other than my typical allergies this time of year, which is now 4 weeks in and really annoying.

I believe our district may be missing a couple of teachers, but nothing crazy. They did a lot of hiring over the summer. One of my kids participated in a couple of interviews. The interviewee taught a class of students who volunteered and the students got to review them. The school is looking to hire for support roles in the schools.

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Somewhere up thread @amvanhoose_701479 said she ordered tests monthly from CVS w/ her insurance, GREAT idea. I just called Walgreens and the pharmacist told me that Tricare (our insurance) is the only insurance that will NOT pay for the 8 tests per month. She has Tricare as well and goes through USPS monthly to get her tests for free. So I went there and ordered more but it also states that it will stop on Sept 2nd. I wish I had understood this soonerā€¦ oh well. COVID Home Tests | USPS

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Thanks for posting this.

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YLE did an update on boosters this week:

A couple notable bits:

Regarding that last one, Iā€™m still catching up on podcasts :sweat_smile:, but Andy Slavitt did an entire podcast on the status of the nasal vaccines.

Here are my key takeaways:
They are very promising towards potentially reducing infections/transmissions, butā€¦. There is no ā€œproject warp speedā€ type effort going on for these. There are 12 in clinical trials, with 3-4 being in the latter stages. So in theory if at least one is successful, it could be just months away, but the reality is it could be last half of 2023 (or later) before they are available to many. There is currently no logistical pre planning being done for mass manufacturing, distribution, etc. And there is no funding to make these widely available.

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I agree. There is a district in southeast Michigan that was already pushing hybrid in-person/online scheduling in 2019 because they didnā€™t have enough teachers. Covid certainly didnā€™t help, but it definitely didnā€™t create the problem.

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I was just coming to post that.

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