That’s no study; that’s an opinion.
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So do you/he have any other ideas why this is happening? Because I know multiple people recently that it’s happened to. Symptoms->rapid test positive->PCR test negative->PCR test positive. I really don’t want it to be an issue with the PCRs/labs, but that’s kind of what we’re left with? It seems it is happening too often to align with normal rates of false negatives for PCRs?
I was speculating if viral load might fluctuate (causing inconsistent test results), it could also explain why some studies show vaccinated/unvaccinated having the same viral load and some studies show vaccinated as having a lessor viral load. Maybe something about how they are testing matters to viral load? But assuming viral load even could fluctuate, I have no idea what would cause it. But when multiple different things are coming in as inconsistent, an explanation that clears up both of them would sure be handy.
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How about just that each test is imperfect? None has ever been advertised to have 100% accuracy.
So some percent of the time, people will get a false negative or positive.
If the false negative is their first they probably don’t go on to test again and prove it wrong.
Of course when the numbers are significant in one region or lab that bears looking into.
But knowing multiple people doesn’t surprise. Think of how many people you know who have tested at all the past few months. What % of those got a wonky result? Some are to be expected.
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Yeah, here was what YLE noted from that part of the meeting:
I thought maybe there was something I was missing, so I chased it back to the published study:
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The CDC recently started publishing rates of Covid deaths by vaccination status. Axios displayed the data in a way I thought was exceptionally helpful in understanding how much difference being vaccinated makes, but also how much age still impacts outcomes.
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Regarding the Pfizer vaccines for 12-18 year olds.
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My best guess is there there were a LOT of lab errors in the UK (sounds like it was one lab in particular?), and the news about that has led to every person who gets a false negative PCR coming out of the woodwork and being noticed in a way they normally wouldn’t be. (Kind of a confirmation bias thing.)
I can’t discount the possibility that there really is something more significant going on with covid testing in general and we just don’t know it yet, though.
Outside of the UK debacle, I’ve only heard anecdotal stories. Have you seen any stats on the frequency?
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Never seen any stats on it. Not sure anyone is even tracking it. They always seem to dismiss a negative PCR followed by a positive PCR as “oh, you must have tested too early”.
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So my DS11.2 and the other 2 at the lunch table tested multiple times last week, all negative.
Today, I get my next close contact call from the school. This time, it’s for someone at the lunch table with DS11.1. This time, they did mention that some parents choose to quarantine, just let them know if we decide to. I asked some questions, mentioning DS11.2 had the same situation last week at his lunch table. I asked if they are aware of much transmission at the lunch tables, and if they are doing anything to separate those kids, knowing they have had close contact exposure and are unmasked to eat. He says they really haven’t and they could send DS11.1 to eat in the office if I want.
DM70 was already in the school car pickup line, so she had them all mask. When they get home, DS11.1 says no one was absent from his lunch table today, but DS11.2 tells me one of the kids from his table was absent yesterday and today. (Um…didn’t we talk about always telling me if your lunch buddies are absent?). I get the classroom contact email notification…sure enough…for DS11.2, not DS11.1.
I had the earlier call on speaker phone. DS17 confirms…they told me the wrong twin. 
And the other as-yet uninfected kid at the lunch table’s family didn’t even get a phone call. They found out from me and the newly infected kid’s mom after I texted with her. (They got the positive PCR back today after testing yesterday when obvious symptoms started, after testing negative at-home on Sat.)
DS11.2 tested negative on an at-home test again tonight.
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Was told the exact thing when I reported my case to the person who handles all of the covid cases. I personally think it just wasn’t a great swab.
But really, who knows?
I do remember when I was first reading reviews of the at home tests that someone complained about false positives followed by a PCR negative. If you only had exposure and no symptoms, why would you ever even look beyond the negative PCR? You wouldn’t. The only reason I didn’t trust mine was because I had known exposure and symptoms.
And for being a breakthrough case, it doesn’t feel all together mild. Upside, since I’ve been able to isolate away from my family they haven’t tested positive/are not showing symptoms. Will test them the last day of my official isolation. Which hopefully also coincides with 24 hours fever free (I keep thinking it’s gone but it rolls back up at the end of the day).
So sorry to hear about your son’s lunch buddies testing positive. I’m sorry they can’t keep your kids straight - I’d make darn sure I had the right twin before I started making phone calls. It does sound like there is a chance that the newly infected kiddo wasn’t contagious Friday at lunch?
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Yeah, that’s what we’re all hoping.
Praying for your family to stay well and you to bounce back! I’m sending good vibes across the metro area at y’all!
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I really hope they are proactive in asking adults bringing in kids whether they themselves have been vaccinated or need a booster. Pick up a few more that way if they are intentional about it. And maybe take care of their flu shots too. Every little bit to help us avoid a winter dual surge.
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This is what happened with my granddaughter a couple of weeks ago. She also had really mild colds/allergy symptoms so it was confusing. Never had a fever and no one else in the house ended up testing positive. We did wonder if she was positive, did the lab make an error with the pcr test?
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I haven’t read yet, but this will give clear direction to the CDC ACIP meetings that start tomorrow.
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2 more from DS11.2’s class have tested positive. That’s 4 total now.
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Do you think it is spreading in school, or are they connected out of school?
I’m not sure about the two new ones. But there are currently only 12 active cases in the whole school of ~750, and 4 are in the same class. Seems likely they would be connected?
The second one from the lunch table is from a family that’s pretty careful from everything I’ve seen. (He wears a mask most of the time at our outdoor soccer practices/games, for instance.). We’re guessing he got it from the first lunch table case at school, but he tested negative on Day 8 post exposure and positive on Day 10, so that’s on the longish end of possible incubation, and he shouldn’t be who infected the two new cases with testing negative on Day 8, I think?. (He was a little tired on the evening of Day 8 and on Day 9, then more obvious symptoms when he woke up on Day 10. He was last at school on Day 7.)
It’s a class of about 30 that rotate as a unit to 4 different teachers (except 1 elective choir/band/art where they split). Their seat assignments aren’t consistent across the different teachers. He says there’s only a few kids (3 or 4?) that don’t mask.
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We have middle school and HS sports/clubs and the only cases we have in schools are from city activities, almost always sports related.
@amvanhoose_701479, there are some rumors of the test and stay being put forward as a nation-wide model in schools.
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FWIW, as of 10/10/21, our district of 21k kids has had 1063 student cases and 114 staff cases. They reported 55 cases to the state as on-campus transmission, 16 as off-campus transmission and they reported the rest (1,106) as unknown. Brilliant contact tracing here.
At the DS11s school, YTD they note 3 cases of on-campus transmission, 0 off-campus, and 39 unknown, but that won’t have any of these cases from DS11.2’s class yet.
One elementary school has 22 cases of on-campus transmission, 2 off-campus, and 51 unknown. (That was the only all-school shutdown we’ve had.)
If you want to peek at any numbers, they’re in the “Local Education Agency” reports here:
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/schools/texas-education-agency/
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