Rumors keep going around that rapid antigen tests aren’t working on various subvariants. I haven’t seen any solid data to support this.
To recap: We know testing early in the course of the infection can result in a false negative if the viral load isn’t yet high enough to register on the test (PCRs are more sensitive and can often show as positive in the range of around 12-36 hours earlier than an antigen test), but antigen tests are still believed to roughly correspond to the period when you are infectious. PCR tests can remain positive for some time after the virus is no longer replicating. It is possible some people’s viral load will never get high enough to register on an antigen test, but it will on a PCR. As mentioned previously, it’s too risky (and unethical) to do human transmissibility studies, so they can’t be entirely sure the likelihood such a person would actually transmit the virus.
The FDA is definitely trying their best to make certain all tests on the market work with all currently circulating variants. Here are some TL;DR screenshots of the key bits of where they track that info:
I’m finding myself more and more determined to go on one of the 2 cruises I booked, either Aug to Alaska or Sept to Canada / New England. I’m pretty sure that at that time I could still face quarantine in a cruise cabin for many days but after waiting for my trip originally booked in Oct 2019 I just don’t want to wait anymore–I want to finally try cruising. No matter what I do I will probably mask in crowded public spaces of the ship. I will admit that I’m hesitant to sail on Majestic Princess after that story about their being, I think, 800 cases of covid on it at one time, several months ago (in Australia?). I know they clean it but, wow. The Alaska is on Majestic Princess and the other one is on Caribbean Princess.
MCO Airport terminal C, hub next to Disney store, 30’ ceiling, uncrowded: 660
A good isolated waiting spot is the solitary bench just past the security checkpoint, on right side, just before the Disney store. Almost nobody around, and 30’ ceiling.
At gate, 10’ ceiling, moderately crowded: 880
On Jetblue A320, during flight, row 2: 1100
The one thing I would have done differently in retrospect, is bring a Winix C545 air purifier along in its box as checked baggage, to help with isolation from other family members in the hotel room in case one catches COVID and not the others. They don’t weigh much.
If anyone is looking for quality masks, especially for kids, Andy Slavitt is promoting these on his podcast. He says they vetted them and provides coupon code “inthebubble” for 10% off.
My DH has been wanting to take our DDs on a cruise for years, but I wanted to wait until DD6 was older. We love cruising and have been on several, but I’m a little nervous! We are set to sail in April. I don’t worry so much I forget to be excited! I have the same wish for you. I think masking will help with some component of the worry–at least you’re doing all that you can.
DW is better - she’s on Day 6, still testing positive but sample line is fading, and she no longer has symptoms, so she’s out and about, while wearing an N95.
DD and I are on Day 4, still testing positive, sample lines fading somewhat, and symptoms decreasing.
I think a big decision to make is around inside dining. Dining is a big component of cruising for many, but I would think also a significant added risk differential if one is masking inside everywhere else (unless someone has seen encouraging ventilation data on the inside dining areas for their specific cruise ship?). I’ve been on 3-4 cruises and actually never tried out room service. I’m thinking that would be an option to consider? (And one could even think about it as a justifiable indulgence maybe?)
Unfortunately, the CDC “6 foot” guidance is probably more a tradition than based on data at this point. The newer variants are so transmissible, and the virus is indisuptably airborn, the idea of “my risk is low as long as I only unmask while seated at my table” is probably best left by the wayside at this point.
That said, it really is a matter of individual priorities…
“I would rather have closer to the full cruise experience and if I spend the last half of the cruise isolating in my stateroom, so be it”
-vs-
“I’d rather take a few additional mitigations to increase my odds of being able to participate in the entire cruise”
I have a friend who decided to take the first approach and ended up positive on her cruise, so her only ever visit to Rome was what she got to see from her stateroom balcony.
Yes, there is a degree of luck involved, but there are also things we can do to significantly increase or decrease the risk, depending on what priorites are. It’s probably worth discussing with one’s travel party ahead of time to prevent friction during the trip if different people have different expectations.
My family of 3 just got COVID over the holiday, visiting with my SIL who had just come off a cruise and whose family ‘had a mild sore throat/cough that was probably allergies’. I protested quite vocally but my wife felt guilty and went to visit, at which point I knew we were pretty much all doomed, regardless. But they truly didn’t seem very sick - they had a cough maybe once an hour or so, and that included their infant who obviously lacks the skills to ‘keep it in’ and can’t be medicated with cough meds.
Anyway, we all got COVID for the first time and it’s going better than expected but I was really hoping I was going to be one of the few superhuman people who never got it! I will say one silver lining is that we’re doing Disney/DCL in spring and the height of flu season will be through by then, and with added COVID immunity, I actually feel like this might be sort of a good thing. If I’m gonna get sick, would rather it happen now than when I’m on vacation/in the middle of the sea.
I will also say that the variants circulating now must be MEGA virulent because we really didn’t have much exposure to her family and we did take some precautions. We should have had her test before we went over, and we should have masked. I admit I let my guard down after so long being vigilant, just so tired of it all and always being the bad guy.
Someone in my wife’s family actually said ‘You have to get sick sometime, and how will you feel if you don’t see her and something happens to her and you never get the chance? Will it be worth it?’ And I said, ‘What if one of us gets COVID and dies, or suffers from long COVID? Will it be worth it?’ It’s not fair to use that logic if you aren’t willing to use it both ways.
FWIW, my wife now regrets seeing her and wishes we hadn’t. I have managed to maintain the grace to not say ‘I told you so…’ but I hope this is remembered for the inevitable point in the future we find ourselves at this crossroads again.
This is kind of how I keep approaching everything tight now.
“If this goes sideways, will I have regrets? Will I think ‘I knew better and it totally wasn’t worth it’? Or will I be able to sincerely think ‘I properly weighed the risks, and the incremental risk we took was justified by what we gained”?”
I’m sure I come across as over-the-top risk-adverse at times, but it’s more that I obsessively overthink all the angles. “What is the true risk and is it worth it?”
I mean, our family does things like zip lining, whitewater rafting, helicopter tours…. But I’m a stickler for seat belts.
You’ve explained exactly what I’ve been thinking for 3 yrs re: the cruise. My plan is to do room service, try to eat at unpopular times if I eat outside the room etc for the first part of the cruise and try out more public eating later on. I’m perfectly ok with room service in my room (of course, I know cruise cabins are notoriously tiny and I haven’t experienced that yet–I have a balcony on one cruise and a deluxe balcony on the other, which basically means it has a couch the other room doesn’t have). I’m also thinking of holding off on the theatre until later on in the cruise. If I had made it to the Alaska cruise the last time it was planned, when the one planned in 2019 actually sailed, I would have been eating with a group where a large # of the members caught covid. I know this from the group chats for the group cruise b/c so many people talked about how they caught covid on that specific sailing. The person who had organized the cruise even missed it b/c he caught covid on another cruise and wasn’t allowed on this one. There was a huge amount of covid going around Alaska season last year and I’m not sad I missed it. That said, I still have until May to choose, and I might end up passing if covid is running rampant. It depends a lot on what else is happening in my life then. Whether I can take the very real risk of getting sick will depend on what’s going on with our move and trying to sell our existing house etc.
Yep, it’s one of the reasons why we did the San Antonio Riverwalk on the way home from our Christmas getaway instead of on the way there. Even though we ate outside and masked during the few times we went inside (Alamo, restroom, etc), DS18 still wound up positive. It wasn’t packed outside, but crowded outside areas are more and more risky as the virus gets more transmissible. And masks can only provide so much protection in crowds when community transmission is high. Or its possible he got infected on our day trip to Fredericksburg a few days before, which was even less crowded outside but we went inside several shops (masked). It’s interesting he was the only one infected, though. So our precautions protected most of us.
For anyone (or anyone in your lives) not keeping up with the details, this article did a (somewhat surprisingly) good job of summarizing where we’re at with a decent degree of nuance. (I read a lot of articles that oversimplify things to the point of being somewhat misleading.)
I don’t worry so much I forget to be excited! I have the same wish for you. I think masking will help with some component of the worry–at least you’re doing all that you can.
I protested quite vocally but my wife felt guilty and went to visit, at which point I knew we were pretty much all doomed, regardless. But they truly didn’t seem very sick - they had a cough maybe once an hour or so, and that included their infant who obviously lacks the skills to ‘keep it in’ and can’t be medicated with cough meds.
I will say one silver lining is that we’re doing Disney/DCL in spring and the height of flu season will be through by then, and with added COVID immunity, I actually feel like this might be sort of a good thing. If I’m gonna get sick, would rather it happen now than when I’m on vacation/in the middle of the sea.
