Coronavirus Outbreak: Part 2

I’ve never cruised Royal, so I’ve never been on the RCL blog except to look for pictures.

I’m also a big fan of Princess Cruise line; I’d like to see what those long-term cruisers are also saying. Such a sad situation for the whole industry. There’s really no way to win.

Matt Hochberg was on the old wdwtoday with Len so I listen to his weekly podcast and like to read his blog and forums from time to time.

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And, I will add that, for at least test results down here, your official answer is not negative but “not detected”.

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Regarding the mitigations @qwerty6 was mentioning, different areas of the country are experiencing different realities.

Case in point: my grandniece goes to a dojo in a small town (40,000+ pop) near us. That small town opened up in May - indoor dining except where the national chain has different mandates. Through the summer Walmart, Target, Dollar General and a regional chain grocery store instituted mask rules. The bulk of the town has no mask mandates. Many stores don’t require masks tho people generally keep a distance. Except sports bars. There’s no distancing in the parking lots where all the cars are.
Last week I happened to see the cumulative death count for the county, which is this town and nearly the same population in outlying rural areas - about 76,000 people. Since counts started being kept, this county has had 12 deaths as of last week. I checked further, being curious - 7 were attributed to nursing homes, 5 elsewhere in the county.

In the dojo, about 50% of the students returned in May when it opened back up. Social distancing was used but not masks. Social distancing involved changing some things and eliminating others. After 4 months tho, social distancing is being changed to allow the return of the things eliminated - which involve touch. Parents and students have been asked to give consent first.

We’ve talked here on this thread about a lot of things covid related. Everybody wants clear guidance. Many want to know precisely what to do. I feel we will not be able to answer those questions until we can answer why one place - like St Louis - still leads the entire rest of the state in cumulative deaths by 2 to 1. After the entire state has been opened up. Yes, numbers else where in the state increased. No where near the same rate.

Until we can answer why no where else in the state has looked like St Louis we’re not getting any good answers as to what’s effective.

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I am not all that familiar with the demographics & socioeconomics of St. Louis vs. the ret of the state, but I think that many of the factors highlighted in Dr. Cevik’s twitter thread I posted yesterday might be relevant. Also, I would be willing to bet just sheer population density has an effect.

But if your local authorities don’t want to sit down and figure it out, and base their guidelines on what they find, even knowing that is not really helpful.

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Oh yes. I meant to read that. Thanks!

We do have Kansas City as well.

Which was recently the source of much flak as Arrowhead Stadium decided to allow 15,000 fans in to watch a game. Stadium seats some 70,000. (Full disclosure - info from sister and not fact checked.)

As unpopular as professional sports are in Missouri currently, they could probably open the stadium to anyone wanting a ticket and still not reach 50% capacity.

eta: I really can’t see many local authorities reading scientific documents tho the head of the State Health Dept seems capable. Altho probably not completely heeded . . .

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We have been on several cruises - first one before kids was Celebrity - one of their older ships, in the Caribbean - I actually cried when I had to get off the ship! Then Princess - Alaska - where I decided when we had future kids this is where I wanted to take them. After kids was an extended family cruise on RCL (Burmuda/Caribbean), with friends on RCL (NE), and now had Alaska (Celebrity) planned for this past summer, lift and shifted to next summer. I really don’t want to cruise with masks. I do worry about the air inside, and I am absolutely against only going offshore with a ship run excursion. We never do those. I always book with locals. I have things booked with locals for Alaska that I can’t quite replicate with ship run excursions. And then we also do exploring on our own - very important to us. So I just do not know what to think of the cruise industry and future right now. :unamused: (BTW love Cruise Critic!)

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We normally find our own excursions (to save money), but since all we do is find a beach I would be willing to do their excursions. (I have in the past when I was concerned about returns to ship on time.)

I’m not worried about getting sick really. DH is a little worried about getting stuck somewhere.

Before we went to WDW last November, my goal was to do an Alaskan cruise in 2021. Then I realized how miserable I am with the idea of vacation and temperatures in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.

NCL board fairly quiet on it… :worried:

Question about cruise requirements to reinstate. One says passengers have to have a neg test within 5 days, I think. What is the proof of test outcome? Is there a letter or what? And can it be faked?

It seems to me that until we can administer accurate rapid tests at the dock, there will be enough room for faked documents and the disease to stow away on the ship.

We were in Alaska mid August and it was cold. Winter coats, thermals, mittens, hats, and scarves. Bulky traveling with those things. We did a glacier cruise. Add in the wind chill factor! The plus side? People left the deck fast!

I think I see 4 threads under News and Rumors on RC Blog

Interesting thought.
No idea how you turn in test results.
Then again. I kind of think it’s just for show so the line can say, “See. We asked.”

Even the hospital where I work is supposed to ask me questions when I come. Nope - just a security guard takes my temp and in I go.

I can’t even. :cold_face::cold_face::cold_face:

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Ideally, they want cruise passengers to be tested twice:

“Testing for Guests
Recommendation 4: All guests joining a ship, regardless of method of travel to the ship, should be tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 5 days and 24 hours before boarding and receive a negative result that is shared with the cruise operator, before coming on board…
As discussed in the crew testing recommendation, if rapid, reliable, and clinically valid testing options become widely available, the addition of a second test at the pier or immediately before boarding would improve confidence in the testing regimen’s ability to prevent SARS-CoV-2 from entering the ship. Using adequately sensitive testing methods, the likelihood of missing a SARS-CoV-2 infection in an individual because of false negatives is extremely low under this double testing scenario.”

There is also a section about re-screening of positives to account for false positives.

The one major gap in this plan is that while most people shown symptoms (if they ever do) at Day 5, the incubation period can be up to 14 days. That’s where the layers of mitigation, like masks, become important.

I’ve only skimmed part of the document, but there are some bits of very sound reasoning in what I’ve seen so far. For instance, they considered whether there should be different procedures for people coming from areas with higher spread, and they (rightly, IMO) determined that an individual’s pre-cruise behaviors are likely to play a larger role in their risk level than their origin location.

That said, regardless of how safe they can make it, I wouldn’t go on a cruise anytime soon because it’s giving up too much control for my comfort level. I might feel differently if I didn’t have kids under 18. If the kids are with, someone else is having a lot of control over decisions related to my kids if things go sideways for anyone on board, and if I leave the kids at home, I could be putting myself in a position of prolonged separation. Yes, these risks are always present to some degree, but I think they are real and present right now.

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So. Two things of note have happened here. 1) first positive case on campus. A teacher who had been (and may still be) asymptomatic but has a symptomatic household member. That notification was followed with a good number of students absent the following day. Some of this also happens because if one person is feeling poorly, all three kids stay home (in a school where big families are common), and some parents simply opted to keep their kids home in light of that news. I always knew it was when, not if, we’d get to test the strength of our procedures.

The second is harder. After 6.5 months of not being allowed to do the job he was hired to do, DH lost his job. Prior to COVID he traveled 50% of the time, selling and promoting a technical service that plants will not even now allow his company inside their facilities to do. We have been beyond fortunate that they kept him employed for so long. This does not come as a surprise. I am hopeful that his unplanned vacation will be short lived, and even more grateful for the blessings that remain. It does, however, mean that I can no longer put off canceling our trip to Disney in December. Another time.

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News update.

I don’t think this is going to end well. If the virus doesn’t get us, the “rules” will.

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Beta update. The rain bands started hitting my area just after noon yesterday and we’ve gotten over 8” since then. There have been gaps that allow our neighborhood to drain well, but others haven’t been so lucky. Gusts have been keeping under 30mph and our power has been stable.

We’re just dealing with a few chronic roof leaks around ductwork in the attic (they don’t like sideways rain) and monitoring the backyard patio (see high water mark in picture below). We have instant sandbags for the back door if needed.

Beta’s center is currently 70 miles from here and moving this way around 3-4mph, and they’ve told us to expect the rain to pick up again tonight, so we’ve got another day or so to go to get to the “dry side”.

Red X is where I’m at.

Current power situation is “whack-a-mole” throughout the area.

This is the freeway from my area into Houston earlier today. It looks bad, but it’s an intentional design of the infrastructure here for the roadways to be water conduits to the bayous to minimize flooding of structures. That system works as long as people stay off the roads when they’re told to! They said this has now drained out, but will likely fill again tonight.

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Prayers for DH and your family! This is so rough!

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