Coronavirus Outbreak: Part 2

It’s a matter of good-better-best, I think. People want a definitive list of “this is safe” and “this is not safe” when it’s really all gradients of risk. I think these are all things that have been hinted at, but I’m not sure much of the general public is willing to adopt more stringent measures. Good info for high risk individuals though.

If you’re just running into the grocery store and not spending 15 min close to anyone, using 6’ and any face covering is probably very low risk.

And for “masks off” places with greater than 15 min exposure, like dine in restaurants, 6’ may not be sufficient. Even more so for high “expelling” environments like gyms or singing.

When you start talking about prolonged and continuous exposure, such as schools and workplaces, some of the research on which face coverings are better would then come into play. And more distance is better. Ventilation matters, but determining to what degree and how to readily evaluate that is challenging.

That article had a link to this article, which I thought was marginally interesting, although to me not for the reason the gym owners would intend. All of the issues with the study are spot on, and with so much unidentified community spread and asymptomatic cases, and few communities having resources to do contact tracing studies (just notifications), it just doesn’t prove anything. But it was interesting to see how many cases have actually been linked to gyms.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/study-gym-safety-covid/2020/09/19/72191b08-f858-11ea-89e3-4b9efa36dc64_story.html

These were the more interesting bits to me:

Data on the spread of the coronavirus within gym environments is scarce. Few states have detailed contact-tracing data available to the public. As of early September, Colorado had tracked more than 600 outbreaks, none of which were traced to fitness clubs, which have been open there since June. In Louisiana, gyms have been linked to six outbreaks, totaling 34 cases, according to data from the state’s health department.

According to MXM’s methodology page, more than 2,800 gyms nationwide submitted self-reported data on the number of member visits and cases of the novel coronavirus linked to their facilities from May through early August. Only 1,155 positive cases were reported out of about 49 million visits, leading MXM and IHRSA to conclude that the infection rate in participating gyms was a “nominal” 0.002 percent.

^ If there are 1,155 known cases from gym visits, I suspect there are a whole lot more.

I’m super unmotivated to work out at home and would love to go back to my gym, but there’s just too much spread here right now. It’s just not that essential.

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This is so well stated. And there are just so many factors that enter into every scenario, that there are very few “absolutes”. I try to find a balance the best I can in either protecting myself and my family or being courteous to others.

For example, while attending in-person church yesterday, my wife and I removed masks only while seated in the pew to make it much less cumbersome to speak and sing. To compensate for this, we purposely sat about as far from anyone else as possible (ended up being 20-30 ft). The church made that distancing possible by adding an additional service so fewer people are there at the same time. We technically violated our state’s mask order, but made a practical calculation, and also have a feel for the others there and that it wouldn’t be seen as an issue. Basically we bent the rules just a tiny bit and treated it like we would a restaurant, and the benefit was a much more enjoyable hour of worship with no meaningful additional risk for anybody.

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I do understand the scaling. The 2 statements I highlighted from the article make many people just throw up their hands! “Concrete solutions” in terms of policy make me wary in CA and more specifically in my county, which has one of the strictest Public Health Department " the state.’’

We are all scientists and engineers in my office. But we have successfully “policied” when we can go into the office and how we can go into the office. In other words, don’t come into the office!

Then, I look at my husband, who has been back in the office since late April with 1/2 of the employees, about 200. The company provides each employee with an new N95 mask each week and standard guidelines. They have NOT had a single case of COVID-19!

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Ah, remember the good old days when the CDC said an n95 wouldn’t work if it wasn’t fitted?

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Possibly, but it could also be adapting to the most recent findings. Early on, before they understood how many asymptomatics were out there and how much they were contributing to spread, there was a hypothesis that the community spread cases were largely coming from fomites. It was an invalid hypothesis, but made sense at the time based on previous knowledge of infectious disease spread.

Current hypothesis is that most spread is from person-to-person, either aerosol or droplets, not contaminated surfaces. Plus, determining that outdoors is a LOT safer than indoors. Add in UV light impact on the half life of the virus. Playgrounds just aren’t as high risk as they thought they might be.

If there is significant community spread in an area, everyone should still be using 6’ and/or face coverings, including at playgrounds, just as they should be in all public places, so additional signage at playgrounds is probably an unneeded expense at this point. People either know it and comply, or they don’t.

If there is little community spread in an area, playgrounds are probably low risk.

Our DS10 twins still enjoy playground equipment to some degree, but we haven’t resumed using it yet since our community spread is still severe. Things are improving so we may be moving from Covid threat level 1 to 2 soon, so we’re going to re-evaluate things like playground usage at that point.

ETA: I think to a lessor degree, we’re also starting to see certain Covid behaviors as normal, when they wouldn’t have seemed so a year ago!

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I’ve seen it in other places as well, indoors and out. I also don’t think that most people keep up with the latest info on COVID-19. Most people I’ve talked to say they don’t pay attention anymore due to reasons such as: It’s too depressing, it stresses me out, and they just don’t really care anymore. I’m sure there are many other reasons as well.

Our area would not be listed as low spread. It’s more moderate.

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Well, hopefully decision makers are keeping up, at least with CDC and state/local guidelines. Our HOA originally had our playgrounds “closed” and now they just have 6’ reminders up, for instance.

Add in mask mandates. And other government orders. Needed for those that aren’t keeping up.

I’m not denying there are people just doing the bare minimum. We’re all tired. It’s just an unfortunate reality some people need to be overly stringent to make up for those being underly so to keep this from blowing out of control worse.

Our playgrounds are open. I have to imagine people who are still afraid are skipping these things, still. For some people, no amount of feet is going to make them comfortable.

Got to youth group last night later than I meant to for a leader. Joined the six others to discuss the evening plans as kids mulled around outside. All of the other leaders were wearing masks. Outside. I was flabbergasted TBH. Last week NONE of them were at the park. I did not run back to my car for one. 2/3 of kids weren’t wearing upon arrive and only a few had them on to the end. Outside. Chairs spaced 10 ft apart. And it was freezing. I miss 2019.
Our retreat weekend is now a retreat DAY this Saturday. It’s supposed to be outside. I hope the weather improves.

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Hearing this makes me so sad, in a way. Your DH’s workplace demonstrates what could have happened had people actually sat down and thought about how to tailor prevention to the population. But, they were relying on models for a different kind of bug, and there were millions (billions) of people to protect, and no time to come up with anything else.

However, time has passed, and we know a lot more now than we did then.

Going forward, there should be no further lockdowns, IMHO. We now know that the virus hits different populations/individuals much differently. To me it seems that we can stop the deaths & stress on the HC systems at its source by focusing on the vulnerable by giving them n95 masks and intensive education/surveillance/sequestering, and let the rest of the citizenry have some type of a normal life.

Keeping (or worse, returning to) lockdown and/or restrictions is unsustainable, and it’s simply falling apart whether the authorities acknowledge that or not. A vaccine is not just around the corner. I think the approach has been wrong- but it’s no one’s fault. However, it is their fault if they can’t change course in the face of new evidence.

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This! Can we please, please adapt to what we have learned about the virus and not put out blanket policies/requirements?

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Wife and I were watching a documentary about the Challenger last night on Netflix. There was one point where they had footage of them filming Christa McAuliffe as she is riding a bike shortly before they were scheduled for launch. She was supposed to be in quarantine. I found it interesting that you could hear her tell them to stay 6 feet away, since she was in quarantine. In all this time, apparently 6 ft has been the standard!

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I had the same thought! I’m sure the producers intended that connection (assuming they were still editing after the pandemic started).

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DS11 getting tested for COVID tomorrow morning-has had fever and cough the past 36 hours. The only place he has been is school where we have a hybrid model and kids are “supposed” to be six feet apart, but they do not have to wear masks in the classrooms. So far no symptoms for me, but if he tests positive I have to quarantine for 14 days so I’m going up to my classroom after school today to get things ready for that just in case…

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I have no idea. There has been so much time, energy and money invested in current policy, I’m not sure it can be changed very quickly. But it seems to me that somehow the authorities have got to get out ahead of this- people ignoring restrictions is very different from an organized reduction in them.

Case in point- my DH says his older patients are the ones most likely to blow off the mask guidelines. Among my friends, this also seems true. And yet, they’re the ones who need them the most!

If we’re going to ease up on restrictions, they need to do it clearly and sensibly, not just let things fall apart and then give up- or throw the book at us again.

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I was just thinking recently about how people will justify not wearing masks because they don’t know anyone who has caught it or whatever, without really realizing that the reason that is true is mostly because there are so many people who ARE wearing masks. So they are “safely” not wearing because so many others are. :confused:

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Yes & that’s the same rationalization behind not getting routine immunizations.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s say you’re dealing with a population that really hates masks. You can force them to do it (and they won’t behind closed doors, or pretty much anywhere they can get away with it) or you can say “You vulnerable people- old & sick folks- you all get n95 masks- the rest of you please stay healthy & try to wear a mask.”

This is how we deal with non-routine vaccinations, such as pneumovax and Shingrex. Not everyone needs them, wants them, or can afford them. So we focus on the ones who are really at risk. I think this is what’s going to happen with the COVID vaccine, if we ever get one. And maybe we should do that now, with masks- and all other restrictions really. It is the same principle.

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Poor, poor DS and poor, poor family! Hang in there!

Oh look!:roll_eyes:

The CDC has just deleted the changes it made on Friday, the subject of my post! And we wonder why some people just won’t believe the virus is real.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/21/cdc-covid-aerosols-airborne-guidelines/?outputType=amp

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In other news….

DS20 will be doing distance learning from home for the Fall Quarter at the University of California at Irvine. He has an off campus apartment we are still paying for. He originally had 2 lab classes that were supposed to be in person. By early August, they had made both lab classes remote. About 1% of the undergraduate classes are in person.

But, the school told students who signed up for dorms (mostly freshmen) that if they didn’t live on campus starting the Fall Quarter, they may not be guaranteed housing if the school calls students back for Winter and/or Fall. So, these poor freshmen will be living in a single dorm room for the Fall Quarter. A single room!!! It’s not that great. They are not allowed to leave their dorm! They can’t even go running around campus! It will be essentially like a “prison”. Food will be delivered to their dorm.

We really don’t think Irvine will call back all the students this school year. If they call students back for the Winter and/or Fall, the school will start with the students who need lab classes in person.

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It does not seem at all healthy especially for a freshman. I think it will be a recipe for disaster for some.

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