I think the US is just getting it over with, less quickly than Sweden but faster than most of the rest of Europe.
3 Likes
I live outside Nashvilleâthereâs no reasonable explanation. Itâs all political.
1 Like
That puzzles me. Who wouldnât want the bars and restaurants to open if theyâre safe?
Did the mayor just not want to be wrong about closing them (which to me is entirely forgivable since no one knew if it was safe) or run the risk of a problem if they reopened?
I just canât understand it. I read a stat today that said 60% of businesses which actually closed will NOT reopen, ever. I think thatâs true. In my little town, thereâs even one that reopened which canât make it due to the limitations, and announced its permanent closure this week. I just really feel for these business owners and their staff. There is no âbigâ business here except maybe a couple of banks, a (tiny) hospital and a mine. There are some newer folks who can work online exclusively but they arenât the backbone of the community, yet.
Everybody else has their life & livelihood on the line.
2 Likes
I donât understand it at all. But there is some speculation that this was a bit of retaliation on the part of the mayor. Early on in the pandemic some of the bars and music venues refused to close and have since filed lawsuits against the city. So some wonder if he was upset about those lawsuits. Now he is saying the reason he had to place such restrictions on the bars was because there wasnât a national Covid response to follow. Itâs a pretty odd move since Nashville needs the revenue from bars and music venuesâa big part of the economy is based on tourism.
1 Like
Thatâs partially true in that the public health response in the US is left to the states, by design. Itâs partially not true because there were guidelines that specified closures of bars and restaurants- thatâs where local authorities got the idea that they should do that, after all.
Yes, same.
Our Governor figured that out early on and set about re-opening as soon as the state was able to. Heâs a Democrat- so this doesnât have to be political unless people want it to be. It can just be leaders trying to do the right thing.
1 Like
Is it possible they are applying data from other studies? Wasnât there another one last week that bars and inside dining have been identified as two areas of spread?
I donât know that any bar will survive in Massachusetts. They have been generally closed (there was a food requirement but they caught them selling bags of chips with drinks to meet it) since March.
1 Like
AFAIK they didnât discuss their reasons for keeping them closed, only that they werenât going to share the numbers with the public. I believe the journalist has filed a FOIA for the rest of the emails (which is sad that they have to do that).
And you are correct about that other study, but itâs a little bit different collection of data. That study looked at what people recalled about where they had been, and is subject to all the limitations of that. For instance, it could just be social people go out more, eat out more and get sick, but maybe not at the restaurant. There was a lot of gray area in that study regarding restaurants, if you recall.
This is just a simple collection of raw data, which shows cases are not being traced to restaurants- meaning employees most likely. It would be hard to track patrons, though an outbreak would probably be noticed.
Itâs possible that BOTH scenarios are true- patrons could be acquiring the illness at restaurants, but itâs not the employees that are spreading it, itâs their dining companions.
These are the reasons why authorities need to be transparent with data. Itâs episodes like this that foster distrust and lead to noncompliance among the populace. They should not hide the figures, they should publicize them and explain their thinking.
3 Likes
Yeah, just saying people recall being at restaurants is a correlation, not a causation. I wish the media would explain the difference.
2 Likes
Yes. In that study they tried to account for that, but the range of the correlation was so wide that it just didnât achieve statistical significance. Not saying thereâs not something going on- obviously itâs higher risk than staying home, for instance, but whether it is something to worry about on a large scale is a different matter.
1 Like
This was my thought - I see many friends meeting up at restaurants and that unmasked dining indoors. We have eaten out a few times - arriving early and in restaurants weâve heard have good spacing and practices. We did meet an out of town friend and her mom at an outdoor restaurant last week (if you sit under 400 year old oak trees it feels less like 90 degrees out). I would not have felt comfortable eating indoors with them and our kids.
2 Likes
Just thinking about the mechanics of transmission, this scenario makes the most sense, too.
That sounds lovely! There is nothing around here that is 400 years old except the mountains.
2 Likes
So here is an example of a health department who is kind of seeing the problem with bars and restaurants this way @ehsanchez and @PrincipalTinker:
âWeâve never said that weâve had actual cases tracked back to bars what we are looking at and thinking about is the activity and the behavior in bars and restaurants and with drinking alcohol,â said Charity Menefee on Thursday, a spokesperson for the Knox County Health Department.
I really do see their point. Does the venue facilitate transmission, rather than cause it? I guess weâd have to know if these folks would be socializing outside of the bars and restaurants if they canât go there, and that might be a tough thing to figure out.
From what I have seen in my own community, I bet they would, though. Theyâd be hanging out in their friendsâ homes rather than at the bar or restaurant. Itâs natural to think your friends are âsafeâ. Or maybe they donât worry about it, but I kind of think this behind-the-scenes transmission is the problem. And that seems to be a tough nut to crack.
Trying to crack that nut is what @missoverexcited is experiencing in the UK. How much intrusion into personal lives is acceptable? Iâm glad Iâm not making these decisions.
3 Likes
If only that were true everywhere.
1 Like
This came out yesterday in the NY Times. Some excerpts:
A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agencyâs website despite their serious objections⌠The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virusâŚ
But officials told The Times this week that the Department of Health and Human Services did the rewriting and then âdroppedâ it into the C.D.C.âs public website, flouting the agencyâs strict scientific review process.
âThat was a doc that came from the top down, from the H.H.S. and the task force,â said a federal official with knowledge of the matter, referring to the White House task force on the coronavirus. âThat policy does not reflect what many people at the C.D.C. feel should be the policy.â
âŚA new version of the testing guidance, expected to be posted Friday, has also not been cleared by the C.D.C.âs usual internal review for scientific documents and is being revised by officials at Health and Human Services, according to a federal official who was not authorized to speak to reporters about the matterâŚ
âThe idea that someone at H.H.S. would write guidelines and have it posted under the C.D.C. banner is absolutely chilling,â said Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting director at the Centers for Disease Control in 2009.
Full article (requires a free subscription to view):
2 Likes
Unfortunately, the goals of authorities are mostly not to look wrong while our goals, generally speaking and on this thread, are to learn what we can.
It seems to me if youâre doing your scientific processes properly youâre going to be wrong much more than youâre right.
Iâm pretty sure I read this book⌠
1 Like
Speaking generally and for another occasion, I read, saw, heard somewhere that if a group is eating - assuming youâre comfortable with the group - have same household members sit across from each other instead of next to.
We did this last month with a group of 4 sets of adults after a karate tournament. We all come together only for the kids to do karate.
And we were tired, so probably less apt to be forceful when talking. 
2 Likes
I had a terrible experience in a restaurant the other day. First, they were completely flouting the law and none of the staff were wearing masks. In retrospect, this doesnât surprise me, the owner/chef is a real curmudgeon. Usually, thatâs entertaining but not right now.
So most of the patrons werenât wearing masks, either. There was an attempt at distancing of seating, though.
But then, I had a fellow sit down a couple chairs away from me and YELL around our party at some folks on the other side of us. Now I donât think the poor soul knew he was yelling, I think he was hard of hearing. But I told DH I wasnât going back there again until this is over.
Several times DH has said many of his older patients donât care about the virus, more so than the young ones. Iâm starting to believe thatâs true.
4 Likes
Iâve seen the view from your house! 400 year old oak trees are just a consolation prize in our muggy concrete jungle.
It has got to be this. In fact Iâve always felt it was this.
Iâm so tired of the politicking around this whole thing. Itâs exhausting and unnecessary. Trying to manipulate any bit of this situation to make things seem better managed is likely going to turn around and bite you.
4 Likes
It was going to be Wilfred but this morning we âblewâ through Wilfred and Alpha in the Eastern Atlantic. Hurricane Beta has an interesting ring to it? Only the second time (2005 - year of Katrina and Rita - being the other) into the Greek alphabet.
2020, amirite?
P.S. Iâve been really impressed with KHOUâs coverage of the tropics and weather in general. They post a lot to YouTube so thatâs nice.
4 Likes