Yes. I think that’s also why they might have such a range of R0s, too. That was very interesting to me. I don’t know if we really know what the natural R0 is of this virus.
1 Like
I’m so hoping this vaccine can get out as fast as possible so things can start opening… like the Canadian Border 
My friend wants to go to WDW first week of June - and I can only go if the border restrictions are lifted 
Just in case I put in request for time off, I can always rescind the request if I can’t go.
3 Likes
Right. And even then, that R0 would be an average. This virus seems to have substantial variability in spread per infected person. Many spread to 0 others. Some spread to many, many people.
1 Like
Thank you for the article!
It’s hard for me to be optimistic right now. Like most states, CA’s vaccine roll out is terrible. Actually, it’s a mess. I know people 75 and up who still haven’t been vaccinated because they can’t get an appointment. This whole online appointment is terrible for people their age! They need someone younger and more tech savvy to help them get appointments and even then, appointment are hard to come by. We moved to 65 and over and I’ve heard that we’ve moved to teachers. Teachers mind boggles me a bit because by the time we get all the teachers vaccinated at the rate we are going, the school year will be close to over or over. So, I’m hoping the article is accurate and that plenty of vaccines will be available very soon.
I got an email from one of the 2 health care groups I’m part of. It stays that the vaccine supply they are receiving from the state is extremely limited and unpredictable. But they are staffed and have the capacity to vaccinate 25,000 patients each day, if they have vaccine.
I haven’t thought much about a real vacation. We have housing reservations for Grand Teton, Yellowstone, Glacier, and Waterton for September. I was thinking we would have to book a second set of reservations for 2022 come May 1 and see what happens as we get into June. I’m going to have to start putting together an itinerary, maybe in June. DS says wearing masks while hiking will be challenging and skeptical about going. Kid, mask requirement will be here for awhile! I need a real vacation!
3 Likes
This is a local critical care physician who has posted regularly through the pandemic. I thought his discussion of post-vaccination “re-entry” was great:
7 Likes
This issue is even more complicated when the kids have medical conditions that put them at greater risk. I am hoping for good news from these studies on post vaccination transmission. I really want to see my grand nieces and nephews.
1 Like
Highlights of Friday’s WH briefing:
At least first shots administered…
…~1/5 of US adults [per CDC tracker it is18.5%; 14.2% of overall population]
…nearly half of those >65
…75% of LTC facility residents
6 week declines in new cases and hospital admissions continuing, but may be plateauing at a high level, just under last summer’s peak.
Variant B.1.1.7 (UK) appears to be 50% more transmissible and 10% of new cases in the US (varies by area).
As a contingency plan, they are starting Phase 1 of a study with a booster targeted against Variant B.1.351 (SA). Cohorts include both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. This booster may not become necessary, but the process may provide useful path for boosters against other variants if needed.
70k new cases/day isn’t even close to where we need to be. Relaxing restrictions at any sign of progress just leads to new restrictions. It is a mistake to take the foot off the gas too early. We don’t want to risk a new surge, especially with the unknowns of the new variants.
I still haven’t found a source for the slides from these briefings. The speakers refer to them, but they usually are showing the speaker, not the slides. Very annoying.
Highlights of Friday’s Baylor College of Medicine briefing (worth watching):
Their offices still have no water due to broken pipes. 
Addressing the disparity of some experts predicting a March surge and some predicting April herd immunity…
Original variant R0 = 2.7; new variants could be as high as 3-4, but not anything like measles (18)
Need to get Re <1 through use of public health mitigations such as masks and social distancing
If R0 = 3, then 60% immunity (through infection or vaccinations) should get us to herd immunity. If R0 = 4, this becomes 70%.
A 9/20 Houston prevalence study showed 13.5% with antibodies, which was 4 times the number of positive cases. 4 times seems to be fairly consistent in other US studies.
30M American positive cases x 4 = 120 million, so current prevalence of infection roughly 1/3. This is consistent with an IFR of 0.5% (flu is 0.1%). [Note: 33% + 7% having received both doses = 40%]
He thinks we may have reached “functional herd immunity” where the number with acquired immunity plus those vaccinated combined with current public health measures has brought Re under 1.
Places to fail:
- Variants [note: through higher transmission rate and/or overcoming immunities]
- Reducing public health measures [note: which would increase Re]
With continued diligence, we can avoid a 4th wave, achieve true herd immunity through vaccinations, and be ok in the US by mid-summer (but not globally). There will likely be worldwide variants, and thus boosters needed, for several years.
In his opinion, if we think having kids in school is important, he says to forget science and get teachers vaccinated.
Your Local Epidemiologist gave an interesting analysis of the J&J discussions. They are checking the efficacy of a second dose. If the second dose provides a substantial boost in efficacy, that could complicate the approach.
Also regarding J&J:
“Asymptomatic Disease (this is big)
-From Day 1 through Day 28 (after vaccination), the vaccine doesn’t have an impact against asymptomatic infection
-However, after Day 29, 74% efficacy against asymptomatic infection”
She also gives a lot of breaking information on the B.1.526 (NY) and B.1.427/B.1.429 (CA) variants.
6 Likes
Thank you for sharing links and summarizing!
1 Like
Absolutely. To my knowledge no peer-reviewed studies have been released on transmission yet. But several pre-prints estimate that the vaccines reduce transmissibility by ~70%. Very promising!
5 Likes
But why would anyone do that? The risk of transmission outdoors seems quite low, especially on a hike.
There has never been a mask mandate in Wyoming, and now in Montana it is also gone, although many businesses seem to be keeping it. The mask mandate for Yellowstone is that it’s only required indoors; and outdoors if you can’t stay 6 ft apart. Which is what the general practice always was. So really the new rules instituted by Pres. Biden didn’t change anything.
Hiking last summer we didn’t wear a mask, and saw very few who did, except where 6 feet distance couldn’t be maintained, such as around Old Faithful. I agree it’s insane to hike in the heat with a mask on. That’s why few people do it.
I would totally keep your reservations. Unless you want to give them to me. 
It truly is a different world out here.
I hear ya with the frustrations over vaccination. DD is caught up in quite a mess in NYS, and as a health care worker can’t get her vaccine until late March as they lost her appointment time. There was no mechanism for her to goo back to the front of the line. They are in the bottom 10 states for getting out the vaccine. We are in the top 10, and the difference is remarkable. And my little county is even faster- we’re almost done with 1b and working on 1c. I feel so fortunate to live here, believe me!
5 Likes
Isn’t there now a mask requirement in federal parks?
1 Like
For indoors; and outdoors if you can’t stay 6 ft apart. You can hike all you want with no mask.
As I said, in practicality, it’s no different than how people have been doing it all along. Common sense.
6 Likes
I have no words … but do you mean DD?
You made my day and DS’s day when I tell him we most likely won’t need to wear masks in MT and WY. We just need the border to open … if you give a mouse a cookie syndrome.
But you understand where I’m coming from. We live in the SF Bay Area. People, for the most part, are super cautious. People wear masks, shields, and gloves! We are technically required to wear a mask anytime we are outdoors where we can’t social distance 30’! I refuse to wear a mask walking in my neighborhood, even when walking with friends or neighbors.
And DH still can’t travel 150 miles outside of Santa Clara County.
And Disneyland is still closed!
2 Likes
We lack that in CA.
1 Like
Lol, you were right about DH vs. DD, I did change that. 
Yeah, I don’t really know what the deal is with Santa Clara County. My nephew was going to go back and visit friends there over Christmas and had to nix his plans. Although I bet you many people are ignoring those rules. CA really doesn’t look that much different from the rest of the country now which is why things like these travel restrictions make me scratch my head.
…
Anyway, it’s hard to comprehend how big Yellowstone is. It’s bigger than Rhode Island and Delaware combined. Also, the vast majority of people stay on the boardwalks and in the parking lots, because they want to see the geysers and the falls. So, on some trails, you might cross one or two parties- maybe a dozen, tops, depending on the hike. Sometimes you won’t see any. That’s why you need bear spray!
If you come upon another party, just step aside as always. Basic hiking etiquette is plenty to keep you safe. Picnic tables are all well more than 6ft apart, too.
It’s a lot like Disney- get up early and beat the crowds to the falls and the geyser basins. I can’t emphasize this enough!!! Then you’ll only have to mask up if you go inside. Which was the rule last year as the facilities are largely run by Xanterra and they had a mask rule.
So I don’t see this as a big deal at all. In reality, it is no change to the way we did it last year. And they had a near-record year for visitation.
2 Likes
This is insanity…masks needed outside when within 30 feet? It’s like the people that wrote those rules don’t understand anything about this virus. And the quarantine rules for just your county. Wow.
6 Likes
We have masks outside at all times, but it is a “recommendation “ not law,
2 Likes
Thank you! I feel so uplifted this morning.
1 Like
That made my day. 
1 Like
It really feels like insanity. I don’t understand how a quarantine requirement in one county out of nine in a metro area makes sense.
People look at me strangely when I talk about how often I have traveled and stayed in hotels during the pandemic. I stopped talking about my travels. And if I get tickets to A Taste of Disney, my lips will be zipped, except here!
5 Likes