Coronavirus Outbreak: Part 2

That was probably me. This article is very interesting.
We’ve had 4 of our great grandkids at our house weekends for a couple of years. These kids have nearly constant snotty noses tho they didn’t this last summer. Let school get started, and there we are with the colds again.
I suggest that’s one of the reasons nursing homes and prisons have been so hard hit - very few snotty nose kids.
For years I’ve gotten a flu shot less to avoid the flu and more because I’ve noticed everything is milder when I’ve had the shot. I always thought the shot was retraining my immune system. I guess it was waking up my memory cells.

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So Minnesota alone was able to trace more than 80 cases to Sturgis. Including one death :confused:

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Do you know of any efforts to trace cases back to WDW? I know they are doing a better job than most but I’m worried about the increased capacity, night time light shows that cause crowd gathering and lingering. I’m thinking of last Friday night at the MK being surrounded, in close quarters, w/ others watching the castle overlay changes. It made me feel unsafe.

I haven’t seen any, and it might be hard because the states that seem to be doing better contact tracing (like MN) would include a road trip or air flight so harder to determine where it was acquired, I would think. I’ve definitely been keeping an eye out.

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I think it’s only a matter of time… sadly.

It’s interesting seeing the numbers coming down in my state. The new restrictions have been minimal and late, so I definitely don’t think that’s it. We have no lock down to speak of. It’s probably down to two things- people being more cautious and curtailing their social activities on their own, and/or the natural rise and fall of the epidemic in the susceptible population- “susceptible” including behavioral variables as well as physical ones.

The public response to the virus is very dynamic, I think. Even though it’s been the same restrictions on the books for months, that does not mirror behavior very well at all. It’ll be interesting to see how that’s analyzed in the years to come.

I’m pretty optimistic that this will be down to a base or background level by Christmas, with a possible bump after Thanksgiving. But the holidays will be a real test, I hope vaccine distribution will start by then. People may give up Thanksgiving, but I doubt very much they’re going to give up Christmas, especially after such a troublesome year.

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On Friday when I was driving home from work it was the first time I saw a massive traffic jam. Miles and miles of cars not moving on i90. All heading towards NY, CT…or just out of MA. Thanksgiving travel has started.

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We noticed the same thing. We live near Rt 20 which is the alternative route for folks who avoid the traffic on the Pike - major increase in travel over the last several days.

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Here is an article I hadn’t seen posted here yet, I think. (It references a NYT article that’s behind a paywall.). A month old, but still…

Bits I found especially interesting…

“According to Eric Clinton, president of UNITE HERE Local 362, the union that represents over 8,000 Walt Disney World cast members, “ We’ve had very few, and none, as far as we can tell, have been from work-related exposure… All this is also coming from a strong source, as the union leader is somebody whose focus and consideration is for the workers, not necessarily Walt Disney World. ”

That was very reassuring to me, because I figure WDW guests are knowingly assuming their own risk voluntarily. It’s the CM that need the paycheck and those that the WDW guests might expose post-WDW I’m more concerned with.

But this bit actually gave me pause…

“ Coronavirus transmission is all over the map, to be sure, and Florida has, during more than one time, seen some of the worst, and so the fact that such things have not been a problem at Walt Disney World, especially when we know that locals are the ones currently visiting the parks, would seem to indicate that the health and safety measures that have been implemented have been enough.”

If it’s mainly locals, I’m not sure how strong the Florida contact tracing is, and how easily it would even be to trace a positive case to WDW. If someone local is going to WDW, I’d imagine they are also going places like the grocery store, so if they have a case of community transmission, how would they be able to tell it was from WDW? Presumably if it was a huge outbreak they would, but not for lower levels of spread. So much data still to be combed through…

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Thanks for sharing the piece and your thoughts. Just for… IDK what… I’ve been into the world, 5x parks, 3x resort dinning, 3x D-springs and to local grocery x2 since moving here in July. I feel safer at Disney than Publix; full stop. It appears to me that locals have improved mask use, since first arriving in mid-July; but the local evening news regularly reports many issues ranging from excessive bar capacity, parties to Desantis sitting on data/reports from the CDC intended to support local health care workers. Last night dinning at Rix our waitress was clearly nervous as was the entire wait staff. DH and I wondered aloud about it. It was the first time we’ve noticed tension. The workers are being put at risk, as we all are, and guests are well aware of the risks traveling, visiting but also have the means to holiday, in the middle of a pandemic, in Orlando. I’m thankful that unions seems to be working with their member’s best interest at heart.

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I have often said that there is a 100% chance people are getting COVID from WDW. There’s just no way you can reduce infection to zero despite many layers of protection. And if people are getting infected, statistically some people are dying.

But the question is whether WDW is more risky than the alternative behaviors that people would be engaging in - going shopping, going to the beach, or spending time with friends.

I think the evidence is pretty compelling that it’s safer than most other activities. That evidence being that after WDW opened in July, cases went precipitously down in Florida. That wouldn’t have happened if WDW was a superspreader.

Now, with the changes in protocols and capacity, it is undoubtedly getting riskier. People should be aware of that and make decisions accordingly - avoid crowds at cavalcades, dine outside, etc. - or just don’t go.

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All excellent points!

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This is why I am going! 99% compliance (making this figure up) at WDW is better than the compliance at the groceries here!

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Yep. A family from my church is at WDW right now, and I figure they are probably roughly just as safe there as at our church here (where they’ve made masks optional for those under age 10 and distancing is supported but not necessarily enforced).

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I worry about what’s happening here. Cases are rising and we haven’t crested the wave. Thanksgiving will add more stress to the system and then on the heels of that we have Christmas. My MIL has pretty much decided not to do her traditional Christmas morning with the whole clan. Instead she’s going to drop off gifts at each family’s home. I hope if she goes inside, she wears a mask. I may offer her one of our Kn-95 masks for this purpose. I’m not really part of the clan anymore (divorced), but I imagine we will now have Christmas with DxH as we are Thanksgiving. It will be odd to have the holidays with our nuclear family of four as we never did that when married. :laughing:

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We’ve had a nuclear family for Xmas for over 20 years and most thanksgivings the same due to being a military family. You can do it! Find the peace in it, create a new tradition. I wish more would isolate for the holidays for their own safety and well being. I try not to be judgie about ppl complaining that their holidays are ruined if they can’t be with family when soooooo many military families do it, year after year. This isn’t directed at you. It’s just me venting my frustration at the general public that is unwilling to make any sacrifice.

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I usually am on my own on Thanksgiving, because the DD’s go with their dad to his family’s celebration. I don’t have any family here other than DD’s. Christmas is the same. They are with me Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning, then go with their dad. This year will be an odd one for sure! Yes, military families are heroes. And medical and first responders that often have to work on holidays!

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Oh my yes, soooo many that make sacrifices for the greater good. This Xmas will only be the 2nd one my DS will be w/ his wife due to deployments.

It sounds like you’ve got your holiday settled. I do think this holiday season will be more difficult.

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We do Thanksgiving and Christmas just us because we prefer it that way. Our youngest doesn’t handle big family gatherings well, so it’s really a good thing we like it this way!

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With my older two being out of the house, our nuclear family actually crosses three households. That’s the problem for us. Fortunately, DS22 sat out this semester at college or we’d have no one over for Thanksgiving.

We had hoped to have my sis’ family for Christmas but that got nixed last week- I’m not sure that was necessary but they might be able to come at the last minute.

It looks like the vaccine will be available in mid-December, so I hope to have it by the time they show up. I really think that’s going to help a lot if high-risk ppl like me are able to get it before Christmas- maybe not with overall case numbers but hopefully with hospitalizations, which we really need help with in many places right now. I can definitely see your worries about a Thanksgiving outbreak on top of a curve that has yet to trend down.

But, in some ways and in some areas, having people gather right now may not be an entirely bad thing. It reduces the number of people who are going to get sick over Christmas, because they will already have had it. Plus, if we’re going to misbehave, it’s probably better if we don’t do it all at once!

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