Right. And any risk assessment will be some kind of calculation between probability of occurrence and impact/criticality. When the impact is “death”, that definitely carries a ton of weight in the calculation vs just looking at probabilities.
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Sure, but we’ll be in the airport and on the plane (on the way back) with folks who have taken fewer precautions now.
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Those are actually the Current Best Estimates of IFR by age group in the CDC planning scenarios that were updated Sept 10.
I noticed they’d updated this a few days ago but hadn’t had time to look at the numbers in detail. And scanning it, I’m not spotting an overall IFR? Am I missing it?
Again, personal risk vs community risk. Unless you are in a sealed contact network, cumulative risks taken by low risk individuals impact the community spread that will reach the higher risk groups. It’s just a question of how fast. And there are a lot of us 50 and over around.
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I’m in that 1/200. DH is in the next group.
There’s a couple things going on here. One is that our grandkids are adults. It’s fun watching great grandkids grow up, maybe especially since we’re not primarily responsible for their upbringing.
Second is that in our opinion, there is zero risk of death - it’s a certainty. Not being morbid, and certainly not at the point my grandmother called old: where you’re surprised to wake up. It’s there in the horizon, tho.
Third would be what sort of risks are involved in every day living both now and 60 or 80 years ago. We had the discussion a bit ago in this thread that we humans aren’t so good at figuring risk - probably the really good risk figurerers died out in primitive times. Else how did we get here at all. And really, even with covid, things seem so tame any more.
Long winded way of saying, as you age, you’re more vulnerable but you’ve also less to lose. I don’t think that’s figured in the risk calculations - how could it be. In my opinion parents of young kids might be as vulnerable, from a different point of view.
And, yes @amvanhoose_701479, it’s about society as well. Tho some elders could be barflies, most of us don’t get out much. We - generally speaking - don’t mingle a lot. There’s plenty we, specifically, don’t do - compared to even 15 years ago. One thing we’re not ready to do is stay at home all the time. I doubt we’re super spreaders.
I’ll add my usual: hopefully we’re still able to have varying opinions and so glad we do.
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Well. That was highly unexpected. I mathed. DH checked my maths. But here it is.
So here was overall IFR data from the July 10 CDC planning scenarios:
0.0050 Lower Bound
0.0065 Best Estimate
0.0080 Upper Bound
I used US population by age to do a weighted average of the Sept 10 update that had IFR by age group but no overall, and this is what I got. I have no idea if this is how the CDC would calculate an Overall IFR (they might weight based on case distribution by age), so if anyone sees anything since Sept 10 from them or Fauci, please post.
0.0038 Lower Bound
0.0073 Best Estimate
0.0130 Upper Bound
My original napkin scribblings: 0.4%-1.3%. 
My maths (population by age from census.gov)
Here is all the planning scenario data, which I thought was interesting.
Note that the R0 is viral transmissibility with no interventions.
% of transmission prior to symptoms does not include the asymptomatic transmission. So I think it’s something like this:
Transmission from asymptomatics 30%
Transmission from presymptomstics 35%
Transmission from symptomatics 35%
ETA: There is also info on hospitalizations and such, but here are two of the more interesting data points:
Mean time from exposure to symptom onset=6 days
Mean ratio of estimated infections to reported cases=11
So that would put us around 23% of the population having been infected.
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For what it’s worth, here’s Disney’s response:
https://twitter.com/scottgustin/status/1309625682423689216?s=21
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What an idiot.
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Great to hear. Starting next we we are going hybrid. We are still in the clear as far as cases in our town… I realize that probably won’t last but I’m hoping we make to november for in school learning
Other than having to switch the high school to remote, and the usual bus issues (nightmares with the restrictions) it was an absolute amazing week.
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Ok, I sat down with a fresh napkin.
As I’ve mentioned, I have fewer concerns about the spread within the schools then I do with all the associated re-openings (less people telecommuting, kids’ activities, churches…).
But, just for the sake of running numbers, let’s assume the community spread does NOT increase with all that added activity, that it’s the same “low” rate they found in the 2 weeks they mention. (And I find that pretty hard to believe. DH’s prediction is that schools are shut down by Thanksgiving and they’ll try again in January.)
TL;DR
Texas Region 4 (includes 7 counties of Houston Metro)
1,248,425 Students - estimated 3 fatalities by end of school year
161,602 Staff - estimated 39 fatalities by end of school year
Detailed calculations and sources if anyone wants to check or re-run for your schools.
From the Washington Post article in the post above:
“Tracking infections over a two-week period beginning Aug. 31, it found that 0.23 percent of students had a confirmed or suspected case of the coronavirus. Among teachers, it was 0.49 percent.”
I am assuming that there were also undetected asymptomatic cases, using the CDC planning scenario estimate of 40% asymptomatic and 60% symptomatic. Then, expanding from a 2 week period to a 36 week (9 month) school year, to get an infection rate over the school year:
Students (0.23% /60%) * 18 = 6.9%
Staff (0.49% /60%) * 18 = 14.7%
Using age group IFRs from CDC planning scenarios:
Students 1,248,425 * 6.9% * 0.003% IFR = 3 fatalities
Staff 161,602 * 14.7% * 0.164% IFR = 39 fatalities
Note: 0.164% IFR Calculation for Staff is specific to Texas, see your state at link below if you want to calculate yours
20-49 years IFR 0.02% * 70% of staff
50-69 years: IFR 0.5% * 30% of staff
In actually, Houston’s community spread is higher than the national average, so that’s an artificially low estimate. But it is an example of what the “low” spread rate looks like when applied to a large community over time.
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Wow. I missed this in all the noise around other non-Covid comments Trump made that day. No way I’m going on Trump’s word over Hahn’s.
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I can’t defend this one. A vaccine needs to be safe and have public confidence, and phase 3 trials need time to work themselves through and don’t care when election day is. I dont think there is any chance a vaccine comes out without all the proper steps. If that can happen quickly, that’s great and everyone should hope for that. But yeah the rhetoric is obviously over the top.
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Sigh. More 2020. This is 30 min south of me. It’s not even a “boil notice”; it’s a “do not use” notice. There goes the bottled water (again)…
https://twitter.com/tceq/status/1309702896196431878?s=21
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In some places half of COVID cases don’t report their contacts. Here is one reason cited:
Persons with COVID-19 might have sought to avoid subjecting their contacts to quarantine control measures, including potential loss of work and related economic consequences.
The authors cite other studies that showed the same results in other states, e.g. Maryland.
Unemployment benefits were supposed to help with this problem, but I believe the increased benefits seen during the shutdowns have largely ended.
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Brain eating amoeba?! I didn’t know that was even a thing.
I wonder how they got into the water supply.
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They have them in Florida too. A child died after swimming at River Country, another 3 kids (I think, 3 people anyway) died around the same time from swimming elsewhere in Florida.
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That is so sad! 
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Look - we are supposed to not be political. Some days it is hard for everyone to keep their views to themselves. At times it feels like you are not trying hard. Please don’t make this a thread that gets locked down. It is amazing that we have been able to keep this discussion going since February without getting locked or heated. I have had to mute more threads than I would like to and have had to abandon the companionship I was finding in open thread because of one-sided comments that I chose not to argue against, but which has now left me missing people a lot. I lean hard opposite you and I have to check myself like it is my job. Please reconsider posting things like that.
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