I think that’s where the calculations for whether DVC makes financial sense or not become difficult. Early on, DVC purchase was a hedge against inflation. But as DVC price per point has increased dramatically over the years, you have to wonder if that hedge is less of an incentive as it used to be. Regardless, you can’t use today’s resort prices when calculating long-term advantages of DVC.
Having said that, for anyone like myself who doesn’t stay on site, DVC is a financial hole that never makes sense. I can stay an entire week off site for the JUST the cost of maintenance, at a much nicer place. When I did calculations, even trying to plan a trip a year (we usually do a trip every 2-3 years), I couldn’t make DVC break even until about 30-35 years.
Disney will not be able to make money on DVC as they hit critical mass with on-site resorts. So, they have to raise prices on new sales, and they are doing things to make resale less attractive. Over time, I expect them to harm the resale market for their benefit by making first right of refusal happen at a much higher price. At which point the can sell the unit at new DVC prices again.