CLWatch - Keeping an eye on the new estimated Crowd Levels

What if I Evaluate instead of Optimize while in the park? Will TP take into account real time CL data then? I don’t necessarily want to change the order of things but I want to know if wait times have increased enough that I need to skip something in order to make a FPP or ADR. Also, I have some less popular rides at the end of the day where I intend to use FPP4+. When I optimize now TP tends to move those rides around based on higher wait times late afternoon but I hope to not be in those SB lines anyway.

Yes, evaluate will also take realtime data into account.

1 Like

So we have the last day of January now, and we’re back to some overpredictions, especially for HS:
Thur Jan 31: MK 5(5) EP 3(5) HS 4(8) AK 7(8)
The big news today though is the February Crowd Calendar update is out - and with it I heave a huge sigh of relief. While the 3s and 4s aren’t around that we had before the last update, almost all so are almost ALL the 10s, there’s only three left in March (the last update had 16 CL10s!)
There are still a signifcant number of small increases though. For the first three weeks in March, which I’ m tracking, I’ve had 37 notices of increases, 47 decreases.
The major observation though is that the decreases tend to be at the beginning of the month, and larger, than the later month increases.
I’ve started a new thread for discussing it, so please head there to make comments and we’ll try and keep this one on topic just for observations on CL levels.

3 Likes

I have 3 trips on the books right now, mid February, early May and mid June. Overall, the email update I got with changes to crowd levels were decreases, with just an handful of increases that were small jumps. Happy to see that, but still in ‘wait and see’ mode to determine how it actually plays out in the parks.

1 Like

Into February we go:
Fri Feb 1: MK 5(4) EP 4(3) HS 5(5) AK 7(5) - so slightly above predictions in most cases.
Let’s just have a look at February 2017’s figures so we have an idea how that looked. We’re ignoring last year due to the capacity shaping shenanigans Disney got up to.

Yesterday was probably most analogous to Fri, Feb 3, 2017. This year showed just slight increases at MK/Epcot/AK over 2017 (probably due to just higher overall attendance). The jump at HS is probably because there is more to do now with TSL…

Numbers for the weekend:
Sat Feb 2: MK 7(7) EP 4(6) HS 7(6) AK 10(7)
Sun Feb 3: MK 6(3) EP 6(3) HS 7(4) AK 9(5)

A lot of underpredictions for the Superbowl weekend, especially those painful Sunday figures.
Was Sunday the first day of the new predictions, I’m not sure. If so, not an auspicious start.

Interesting to note in the latest CC blog update that Steve said Fred is investigating possible capacity shaping at Animal Kingdom.

If you were there this weekend, how did you find it?

1 Like

I was there all last week and at MK yesterday. We were looking forward to the predicted 3 thinking that super bowl would keep locals home. Unfortunately it was much more packed. Lots of large dance groups and tours. We still had a great time but I never once felt all week that the crowds were low. Probably just my expectations as late January is listed as the second lowest time to go. I guess this was the new low crowd feeling. We better get used to it.

I will say that a good plan helped, but navigating the crowds to get from stop to stop was pretty challenging.

1 Like

I was in MK on Sat 2/2 and it felt like a 7 or inching into 8 territory at times, not because of lines, but because of the quantity of people, which I know TP crowd levels don’t really take into account. So I would agree with a 7. We also went to Epcot after that, felt like a 4, not too bad, except obviously crowded around world showcase.

Sunday we had a bit of time in the early afternoon at HS. The higher than expected crowd levels are probably because it was 2319 (2/3/19) day and there were lots of people in the park to see MIke and Sully. A few cast members commented on it.

1 Like

After looking back at the last 3+ weeks you have posted, here are some thoughts:
-The slowest day for AK seems to be Wednesday, with Tuesday and Thursday also being ok options. Monday and Saturday are both EMH and Sunday is almost as busy.
-Sundays are AM EMH for MK, but that park isn’t really any busier than the others. They’re all pretty busy.
-HS AM EMH (Friday) is a better day to go to HS than AK. But Epcot would probably be the lowest crowd choice, based on these numbers. (Which follows the day after EMH rule.)
-Epcot is busier on Tuesdays (PM EMH) than Thursdays (AM EMH).
-January 27 and the pouring rain all day is the biggest fluke in crowd levels. We finished our trip at HS that day and got a lot of AS2 and TSM repeat rides in at RD. But it was not a fun day to be in the parks.

It will be interesting to see if these observations hold true long term.

2 Likes

We are here currently. Not surprised that Sunday ended up being a 6 at MK, it definitely felt busier than a 3. At DHS today and no way is it the predicted 2. It feels like at least a 7, it’s very very busy. I’m intrigued to see what the actual figure ends up being.

You were close - it was a 6!

AK was a 7 – predicted at 1.

Any idea why some of these seem wildly off? Are they crowd shaping again this year? I’ll be there next week. Hope it’s not too crazy.

Was at AK yesterday, was not expecting it to be a 1 but was not prepared for a 7. It was busy.

Every day but Wednesday seems to be extra busy for AK based on the stats we have going in the OP. :frowning_face:

1 Like

Wow, as those have noted, some very big divergence from predicted to actual the last couple of days:
Mon Feb 4: MK 7(5) EP 6(4) HS 9(4) AK 9(5)
Tue Feb 5: MK 5(4) EP 5(4) HS 6(2) AK 7(1)

It seems to be that there is no longer a good way to plan for low crowd levels.

Generally:

(1) Non-School days will be busier than school days so avoid holidays if possible;

(2) September is only month that still has consistently lower crowd levels. January, February, May, October, November and the first 2 weeks of December can no longer be counted on for low crowd levels.

(3) Other than September, there will be some less crowded days each year, but it is much harder (nearly impossible) to predict which days those will be than it was a few years ago. Any given non-school weekday may range from low crowd level to a non-holiday version of CL10. at some parks

1 Like

I’m looking at wait times for HS today and it seems like it might actually be what’s predicted. Wish I was there!

What’s crowd-shaping?

Messing with ride capacities to keep it feeling busy and minimise staff.

1 Like

When are your dates? My plan is October 21 to October 31.