CLWatch - Keeping an eye on the new estimated Crowd Levels


Thank you Len, so impressed by the extra work going in!

Here’s yesterday’s full figures (they’re ALL posted on the OP if anyone’s missed that):

Thur Feb 14: MK 7(7) EP 4(4) HS 7(3) AK 10(5)

As Len’s already mentioned, those AK figures aren’t to be trusted. If theories here are correct it may be Disney testing the impact of later day artificial queue hikes (while they were mostly earlier before I think).
While we don’t have reported figures to the contrary for FoP the reported wait times also do the opposite of what the predictions say, jump back up from 2pm.
We’ve seen atypical HS dates earlier this week too so that CL 7 would raise a question mark for me as well.


Could it be as simple as there are more people in the parks (especially HS and AK) than expected? I understand CL estimates are based on wait times but could it be that the new lower tier pricing and marketing efforts overseas and for tour groups have brought more people into the parks than typical for the “low” season?


I don’t think so. What @len is saying is he has people actually waiting in the lines, and the actual wait times are way lower than the posted wait times.


I think some of our individual attraction wait times are low. I’d be surprised if thousands of guests independently decided not to visit MK or EP, and instead visit AK and DHS, without some sort of external factor we see.

It’d be like thousands of people suddenly saying Pete’s Silly Sideshow is their favorite attraction in the MK instead of Space Mountain. The odds are pretty small that that kind of thing happens, absent some external event.


And so we hit President’s Day weekend!

Fri Feb 15: MK 9(9) EP 6(7) HS 10(8) AK 10(8)

We’re not predicted to see crowds as low as this week has been until the end of April. They don’t last long any more do they.

Once again, hard to know what to make of the two CL10s, as Len pointed out the other day there’s some posted times on KS that don’t match what is being reported by liners in the park. In some cases it’s 35 minutes higher than reported..

From what I understand this weekend marked when Disney stopped their messing with capacity experiments last year so hopefully whatever they’ve been doing this week will stop too.


I wonder if there are more kids from the cheerleading and dancing competitions on some days than others. Do they compete on certain days? Those would be the days to expect lower crowds during the day and high crowds at night because they are finished and celebrating. Likewise the night before competitions in the park would be lower as well. I’m interested in knowing this since my week in May is during a competition.

Truly grateful for people who are putting times in when they get through lines. I plan on paying it forward and do the same on non fp rides.


I have always felt that WDW Wait TImes were more a method of queue control than an actual estimate of time, i.e. they are designed to discourage people from getting in line and encourage them to go to another attraction that is less in demand. Add on to this their “testing” of artificial queue hikes, and they are even less trustworthy.


Saturday of President’s weekend continues to be very busy with CL10 actuals across the board.
Sat Feb 16: MK 10(9) EP 10(8) HS 10(10) AK 10(8)

There was a huge second spike in Flight of Passage reported waits that got them up to 275 minutes:

That’s not what the model predicted so whether it’s Disney messing with the figures still or just some strange crowd patterns we can only guess. For the line to drop to 135 midday but then go back up to nearly five hours in the afternoon seems bizarre.


So - a word about CL10s. I was at DHS yesterday afternoon. It was busy. We took a Mini Van there in the afternoon (was our arrival day) and the driver said that he hadn’t seen the parking lots that full since Christmas. Today, we went to Epcot, which is predicted to be a CL8 - I’m interested to see where that falls when the actuals come out. Both days were busy, but there were still quiet spots, crowds were thick but not wall-to-wall like some of the pictures/videos I’ve seen of Christmas/Easter crowds (which the team at TP has said that Christmas/New Year’s/Easter 10 is in a completely different league than an ordinary 10. )

In both cases, we did everything we wanted to, and never waited more than 20 min (and the 20 was for a Soarin FP). I would ageee with the statement that having a good TP makes a 10 feel like a 5… We didn’t notice an appreciable difference wait time wise so far for this trip, vs April last year when all of our days were a 4, 5, or 6. Sure it felt busier, but never unmanageably so…

Make a good TP. Learn from people here. Work the day of FPs and modify. Go and have fun, no matter the CL.

Edit: And Epcot was a 10. Honestly didn’t feel like that to me.


I’m already missing these posts.


I’ll get back on it and update it all soon! Just driven 1,000 miles from Miami to Pensacola via the Keys (very indirect route :grin:). Mardis Gras in NOLO tomorrow, but into our Winter Haven villa from Monday. And Wednesday they’ll start getting on the ground updates as we’ll be at Disney!!!


Oh yay! Have fun! I figured you were traveling, but I couldn’t remember when your trip started.