CLWatch - Keeping an eye on the new estimated Crowd Levels LP


#1

So we’ve have two days of the new, and controversial crowd calendar figures. Both days have ended up as significantly lower actual crowds, which is good news. But, it’s only two days.
I thought it might be interesting to try and keep track of it for a while, as as far as I know there’s only yesterday’s figures published, or am I missing a historical record of predictions?

I hope it’s of interest to some people.

I’ll put them below, with the actual figure first and what was predicted in brackets behind it.

CLWatch (predicted in brackets)
Wed Jan 9: MK 5(7) EP 2(6) HS 4(9) AK 5(9)
Thu Jan 10: MK 4(5) EP 2(6) HS 5(9) AK 6(8)
Fri Jan 11: MK 4(6) EP 3(6) HS 6(10) AK 5(8)
Sat Jan 12: MK 6(9) EP 5(7) HS 6(10) AK 6(9)
Sun Jan 13: MK 1(5) EP 2(3) HS 4(7) AK 5(5)
Mon Jan 14: MK 4(6) EP 2(4) HS 5(5) AK 7(4)
Tue Jan 15: MK 4(5) EP 4(4) HS 3(6) AK 3(4)
Wed Jan 16: MK 5(6) EP 3(5) HS 1(6) AK 4(6)
Thu Jan 17: MK 5(6) EP 2(5) HS 5(9) AK 7(8)


Everyone take a breath about Crowd Levels. It's not the end of the world!
#2

19 days out from out trip and I’ve been looking at wait times this week and agree they don’t seem as bad as the new CL prediction levels made me fear they would be. Hopefully the trend continues!


#3

Yes absolutely. I just couldn’t see anywhere you can compare the two so figured I might as well record them here as just for myself. And it might make for an interesting discussion of it as they progress.
I do want to say, I love the TP product, it’s so much more than just these crowd levels, I’ve learnt so much from the forums and chat and I’m sure the actual plans themselves will be invaluable when we visit Orlando for the first time this year. So thank you to them for all they do. This isn’t a dig at anyone, it’s just to keep track of the emerging situation.


#4

This is great! We’re going in 10 days, so I’m VERY interested to see how this plays out.


#5

Ultimately, the knowledge is the most important part. I’m a relatively regular visitor, and came this week with only the bare bones of a plan, yet I wasn’t concerned about the CL changes.

Why?

Because I’ve learned so much around here, from the many reads of @OBNurseNH’s magnum opus, to the knowledge of when day-of FPS for hot attractions drop, that I can still “wing it” and get to everything I’m interested in.


#6

Oh my goodness, stop. I’m blushing! :blush:

Everyone here is a wealth of knowledge!


#7

I agree, that fastpass modify thing is a game changer!!! I ran in to tell my wife all about it and she was like, ‘Okay darling, it’s 1am, come to bed now’


#8

LOL :laughing:


#9

True enough.

You’re the FP modifying goddess, though.


#10

I’m excited to be a goddess of any kind! :fairy: (not really the same thing but you get the point)


#12

Only actuals in there I think @mikejs78


#13

It shows predicted, but you have to go into a specific day, like here.

It’s pretty detailed. Shows you park hours, parades, fireworks times, etc.

And if you drill down into each park it shows you peak predicted and actual times for each attraction. And if you click into the attraction, shows you various wait times throughout the day.

A wealth of data.


#14

Oh great, I thought we could only get predicted for the latest day, that’s really helpful! Thank you.


#15

Right or wrong, I love that TP is completely transparent about their accuracy.


#16

This is why I value their predictions over any other source. First of all, they let you know how they come up with the predictions in the first place - not all the geeky statistical model details, but a decent layman’s summary. Second, they then compare how they did once the actual numbers are in. Not one of the other prediction sites does this.


#17

So third day in and an average of 3 CL actual below the new predictions. The positive trend continues.
Let’s see what the weekend holds!


#18

So we have our first Saturday up and we’ve got a similar result with the prediction continuing to be an average of 3CL above the actual.
One swallow does not a summer make, but I like where this is going.
What have people’s experiences been like in the parks this week, anyone there who can share?


#19

And it’s marathon weekend too. Last year that had almost 9/10 crowds…


#20

Gosh, that’s really quite surprising then!


#21

One thing I’ve been curious about is how often do their predictions change, on average, and when they post actual vs prediction is it the most recent prediction or do they include their prior predictions as well?