[quote=“brklinck, post:12, topic:20945”]
First of all, a clarification. As @PrincipalTinker pointed out, I am not against using FPPs early in the day, if that is where you get the best benefit from them. However, I do not think that the best overall strategy is to use them early.
[/quote]Right… in a nutshell, what your position is, is that you are not “for” using FPP late just for the sake of using them late (or conversely against using them early just for the sake of it), and in certain rare instances may even use them early. Rather, you advocate using the software, and that the software usually leads to late use, or where the “greatest benefit is gained.” Hopefully, you can appreciate that at the end of the day, the two effectively work out to the same thing. You may have arrived at the end result through your own particular rationale, but in realistic working terms I’m not sure that the distinction matters.
[quote=“brklinck, post:12, topic:20945”]
I think that it would take a lot of programming effort (and a lot of processing time for each plan) in order to find the “perfect” plan[/quote]Probably.
[quote=“brklinck, post:12, topic:20945”]
I do not believe that there would be a huge wait time time savings in doing this.
[/quote]On this, I strenuously disagree. Under certain circumstances, I think there could be enormous time savings.
[quote=“brklinck, post:12, topic:20945”]
Make a plan and use the Optimizer to help you select FPPs. Make a copy of it and then use the “early FPP” theory to make your selections and then Evaluate it to see how it works. Combine ideas from the two methods and Evaluate. Etc., etc., etc. The Optimizer is great for what it is designed to do, but the Evaluate function is where the real value is for the experienced Liner.
[/quote]And here is where we get to it. The following are two plans for identical activities:
Plan A using FPP early… Disney World Touring Plans
Plan B letting software be your guide… Disney World Touring Plans
Now, comparing the two, you immediately see that your “iterative method” Plan B beats the “use FPP early” Plan A handily. Less waits, more free time. Heck, it even gets you done supper and gets you home earlier. But is it really? Let me illustrate with an experience from 2015.
On our first of two full MK days, during our 2015 April WDW trip, we used the Early FPP theory. As the day went on we realized that we were running more and more ahead of the plan. By early afternoon, we were a good 45 min to an hour ahead of the plan. Now, this had nothing to do with my early FPP use strategy… rather, it was the result of the TP being more effective and efficient than it gave itself credit for. But by using our FPP asap, we now had the ability to utilize that 45-60 minute window, in a way that would not have been possible if we’d used your method. We got out of whatever attraction we’d just done and, as she had gotten into the habit of doing, DW asked “what next?” I explained the situation, and offered some options… take a break and just walk around, do some shopping, plug in some extra rides… that kind of thing. DD7 immediately says “more rides.” I ask them, do we do some repeats, get a head start on some attractions from the day 2 TP… they start giving me the wish list. “Pooh” says DW, "Little Mermaid (meaning Under the Sea) says DD7… and they both want to re-ride Tea Party. So with about an hour or just under window, we’ve got some ideas, but Pooh at this point is about a 45 minute wait, Under the sea is @ 30 minutes, and Tea Party is… I have no recollection, but probably pretty long. No problem! Since we’d burned all 3 of our starting FPP allotment, we simply went to the kiosk and hooked up Pooh. Rode it, and hooked up Under the Sea. Rode it. And STILL got in Tea Party, before we had to merge back up with the TP. If we had been using a FPP plan as determined by the system, and had not been able to draw on FPP #4 and #5, at most we would have gotten one of those attractions into that window.
So back to your point. How do you Optimize or Evaluate that? How do you make the software “Evaluate” running 45 ahead of what the TP itself thinks is going to happen? I could plug in those 3 additional rides (Pooh, Under the Sea, Tea Party) and hit evaluate… but what if Pooh had not been available for our window, and we’d had to adlib with Peter Pan, or Pirates instead? How can the software account for that? With all that in mind and reflecting back on the two plans above (Plan A and Plan B), how does the 26 minutes of “In Line” savings from Plan B look now? That 26 minute advantage doesn’t look so good when a situation like the anecdote described above arises, and those extra FPPs that Plan A gives you the freedom to capitalize on start saving at least that much time, and multiple times within the same day… and start manifesting not just into time saved, but full-on additional rides enjoyed.
Even if you dismissed my wall of text above as unconvincing anecdotal evidence, take a look at Plan A and see why it loses to your Plan B. By far, the biggest factor is that 46 wait for Splash. With that wait alone, if you could get a #4 FPP to wipe it out, Plan A beats Plan B. And it just so happens… as I write this sentence, the time is currently 11:30am, and the lines APP says that the next available FPP for Splash is 3:50pm… aligning almost perfectly with a) the time Plan A would be finishing FPP #3; and b) the time Plan A would be looking to book Splash for a hypothetical FPP #4. And if that alone put Plan A over Plan B, then what would a 5th FPP for Magic Carpets do? Or a 6th, 7th, and 8th FPP during the window you’ve now created for attractions that aren’t even on the TP? How exactly is a plan, like Plan B, arranged as per the software’s suggestions, going to compete with that?