Are the vaccines interchangeable?

[sanstitre_has_left_the_building]

of the 76 deaths of delta so far 26 of them were in fully vaccinated people

This is a better statistic than this

AZ even after 2 shots is still only around 66% effective against Delta

but it still needs further interrogation.

What do we know about the 26 fully-vaccinated people who died after contracting the delta variant, despite being fully-vaccinated? One thing we know without even needing to look it up is that they were not young, healthy people, because young healthy people have not been fully vaccinated. The fully vaccinated comprise a significant number of elderly and vulnerable people. Right from the start COVID has overwhelmingly been a sometimes fatal disease of those aged over 50 (and even then, it’s mostly those aged over 70). The death rate of people in this group has dramatically fallen since the vaccination programme began and it has not risen again since COVID restrictions started to be lifted back in April.

All of this nuance is lost in over-simplified statistics such as

AZ even after 2 shots is still only around 66% effective against Delta

Indeed, I’d go so far as to say that that statistic is so wildly misleading as to be worthless.

I am not for a minute saying it isn’t effective. Yet fully vaccinated people with AZ and Pfizer are getting COVID and dying. But in very very small numbers.

Well, quite. Seasonal flu kills hundreds of people a day during the season. COVID — of whatever variant — is killing around ten a day in the UK. Which is below 1% of the total of around thirteen hundred a day who are dying from all causes.

Not the impression that someone might get from the bald statement that

AZ even after 2 shots is still only around 66% effective against Delta

Not least because what does “effective” even mean in this sentence? It doesn’t mean what I think the general reader would assume it means, viz that AZ is a bit rubbish and you’ve got a one in three chance of being dead by the end of the week.

[ryan1]

Not least because what does “effective” even mean in this sentence? It doesn’t mean what I think the general reader would assume it means

This is a very good point, and how the numbers can be misleading. The effectiveness that is reported widely typically means effective in preventing infection. But of the other 30+% that are getting infected, a huge majority of them are asymptomatic, or only mildly symptomatic. Breakthrough cases leading to death are quite rare.

So, while AZ is “less effective” than Pfizer, etc, in preventing infection, it doesn’t appear to be that much different in preventing hospitalization or death.

The question remains, then…for those who are actually becoming infected after vaccination with AZ versus others is if they are seeing them spread it to others. I’m not sure we have numbers on that. But from what I’ve read, even those who become infected after vaccination have a practical slim to none chance of actually spreading it to others…maybe!

[sanstitre_has_left_the_building]

That was the clinical recommendation only a few weeks ago, which I was repeating

Well, it was a clinical recommendation and one which is, apparently, no longer a clinical recommendation. So one should be cautious about repeating it.

Humanity has many flaws. Three are: our desperate need for certainty, our desire for simplification, and our love of helping others.

In medicine, there is little that’s certain. I recently switched dentists. My former dentist recommended I use a daily mouthwash. My new dentist advised against this. (When I moved to the US, my US dentist recommended I have all my wisdom teeth removed immediately. In a panic I called my UK dentist, who disagreed completely. I went with the latter advice and, over twenty years later, I still have those wisdom teeth and they are doing sterling work doing whatever it is that wisdom teeth do. Chew stuff, I guess.)

Around seven years ago I developed an odd under-the-skin itchy feeling. I went to see my GP. Her conclusion was that it was idiopathic, i.e. she didn’t know what it was. It responds to antihistamines, which I now take three times a day. If I forget to take one, the itchiness returns.

Around four years ago my dog developed rhinitis. Endless tests and expense — and the expertise of multiple vets — resulted in the diagnosis that the rhinitis was idiopathic, i.e. they don’t know what causes it.

Joe Biden has a slightly less than one in ten chance of being assassinated in office.

Well, four US presidents have been assassinated in office and he’s the 46th president. So, you do the math.

Hopefully you’ll agree that my statistic is stupid, despite the data on which it is based being accurate. Not everything can be simplified to a single, unqualified figure.

And, we love helping each other. But seeking medical advice from strangers on the internet is probably not wise. Nor is giving it.

[Alewis678]

Delta variant impact on hospitalisation revealed

The 60some% is for infection, not death. For hospitalization, the percentage of protection is higher. Death percentage is still being determined, according to another article.

[missoverexcited]

But seeking medical advice from strangers on the internet is probably not wise. Nor is giving it.

All of this.

[ryan1]

Well, it was a clinical recommendation and one which is, apparently, no longer a clinical recommendation.

Actually, that isn’t quite true. The CDC still recommends you stick to the same brand of shot unless there is no other option…and, they go so far as to suggest waiting up to 6 weeks for the second dose of the SAME shot rather than changing to a different shot. And, if the two DIFFERENT shots are not of the same type (i.e., both mRNA), then they still recommend getting a second dose of the second type of shot.

This is consistent with that I stated.

It does sound like there is on-going evidence that this advice from the CDC will likely become obsolete eventually.

[missoverexcited]

To prevent another thread turning into an argument about vaccines, I’m going to close this now.

[missoverexcited]

From Ariadne:

Thank you, all, for your comments and opinions. Sorry I created a thread that needed to be locked.

We decided to go with the Moderna after the Pfizer, since the government in Canada is recommending that and with the Pfizer shortfall in Canada, DS18 might end up with it anyway.

This means he will get his second shot next week instead of in 4 weeks. As he works in a warehouse with other people from areas that could be hotspots, we thought it was better to get him done sooner rather than later.

Again, thanks for your help. Varying opinions, while they sound like arguing, actually help to clarify my thoughts. Your comments help me to see what I might have missed and some of you have pointed me to articles I hadn’t read. In addition, the global perspective of this group helps to bring diverse information that might not be available in the media silo that is my news source.

So, I do appreciate all your opinions, even the ones that disagree with each other.