Ultimately, everything is a gamble. It seems increasingly difficult to predict Disney’s next move. What I CAN predict is that they will raise ticket prices, much as I had predicted Disney’s rise in AP price. (SO happy I bought early on that as well.) I can’t tell you WHEN it will happen, but it WILL happen I’m sure before our next trip. The only part of my decision was the gamble as to whether the ticket prices through UT would be cheaper for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend, which is when I’ve typically been able to secure their best prices of the year.
But, with the level of price increases we’ve been seeing, I expect ticket prices will go up enough not to take advantage of current pricing.
Of course, when it comes to room-only reservations, you are correct there. Disney will likely offer SOME kind of room only discounts along the way, although who is to say when and if they will be the same as the package discount. I figured I saved about $120+ by getting my tickets through UT right now versus WDW now. When tickets go up, that savings increases even more. The question is if the discounts on packages will be better than any room-only discount by that amount. Who knows. I my case, I plan to stay off site for one of our trips, and use DVC rental for the other.