Why such a difference in Crowd predictions

Okay, here’s our analysis of wait times at DHS: http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/29/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/

There’s a lot of background material. Sorry about that. We considered a bunch of explanations for wait time increases. For each of those, we tried to figure out what would happen to the number of people in the standby line, and FastPass+ availability.

I’m working on Epcot now.

5 Likes

Wasn’t his middle initial “H” for Herbert?

I mean, I checked the Internets, @SenorCzervik. They say J. And if you can’t trust the internets… :smile:

1 Like

Great blog @len . Just a quick question or three :smile: Was wondering what the ‘approximate’ timeline is for adjusting the TP software? Will the adjustment be ‘global’ and affect all TPs in all parks once the new code is written- or is each park treated separately? Am sure it is a huge job, but would be nice to get an idea knowing full well that issues may arise delaying implementation.

Fred should have something out in the next couple of days. We’ll probably do another update for 2016 within a few weeks after that.

1 Like

Len, your blog post is awesome! Love this kind of analysis!

2 Likes

Loved the article @len! You all have done so much work and we appreciate all that you guys/gals do! Thank you so much!

1 Like

swoon

1 Like

Thanks so much Len and everyone at TP. My WDW trip was a couple months ago, and I’m not currently planning anything new, but I got sucked into the reports of longer lines and bigger crowds and have been checking in daily ever since to hear what the data wizards would come up with. Fascinating stuff.

1 Like

Loved the post last night. Read it over dinner and geeked out. Agree with @DarthDopey - not felt this much anticipation since waiting for free dining.

I appreciate how you make the data clear and easy to understand and reading about the logic is interesting. Thanks!

1 Like

Great second post, @Len . Making us wait for the ‘main event’ until last- huh? :smile:

Here’s the link for blog number two for those interested:

What’s Up with Wait Times at Epcot? | TouringPlans.com Blog

1 Like

Animal Kingdom post goes up on Sunday (so we don’t disturb Derek’s Saturday Six schedule. He’s got a lot planned.). Magic Kingdom will be early next week. Also, I’m on a father/daughter road trip this weekend, so limited posting here. See y’all soon, and thanks for the feedback!

Len’s blog for the AK is up. Here is the link for those interested:

Although I enjoyed the AK entry, I cannot wait (even though we have to :smile:) for the MK blog- as the MK has a lot more attractions and is a much more complicated park than the other three to navigate and figure out optimal touring plans for. Excited to see all the different variables affecting wait times at the MK, @len .

1 Like

My week long Disney trip is happening starting on the 10th of November, will the updates be done by then? Getting kind of nervous that my plans won’t function very well as they stand right now.

will the crowd calendars be updating soon? I have a trip over Thanksgiving.

I just re-optimized a MK TP for Nov. 8 (this is a modified plan from noon - 7 p.m.) and the software re-ordered several attractions and wait times changed.

I have no idea if this means the crowd calendars are being updated, but I just wanted to pass along what I saw.

And of course, HUGE thanks and props to the brains and math people who make this all possible.

Let’s see if @len can help :blush: , Thoughts on when the crowd calendars for November will be updated? Or should we just start using the optimize button randomly like @lizzney22 ? Thank you for everything!

1 Like

It really should be within a few days. Fred’s got most of them done, and we’re going to go through them day by day to make sure they look reasonable.

Also, while we’re doing that, the regular updating of attraction estimates is happening in the background. They’re related, but don’t end at the same time.

So it’s always a good idea to optimize and print one more time the day before you leave just to make sure you have the most updated info :+1: