Just wondering how likely it would be to get a FP slot for Soaring on the day (17 Aug) after I have used the others at about 12:30pm? TIA
Depends on the crowd level. Doesn’t look promising though.
http://blog.touringplans.com/2017/05/05/day-of-fp/#more-125922
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Thank you! I’ve been trying to decide between FEA and Soarin’. Soarin’ is my “must ride” so I was hoping to get a fast pass around noon after finishing FEA. Doesn’t look like I should count on it! On the other hand, I’m willing to wait for Soarin’ but not FEA 
Rope Drop Soarin???
How many people are in your party? I’ve gotten a Soarin FPP as a fourth during summer, but I’ve also noticed on more than one occasion that Epcot ran out of all FPP by mid-late afternoon (definitely no tier 1 by lunch). I agree you can try to RD soarin, or go later in the day. We’ve ridden during illuminations and during PM EMH with a relatively short wait.
Can I just clarify - Looking at the tables, if it says for example the reservation runs out at 3pm, does that mean that up until 3pm you can still get FPs for that ride, but they may be much later on (eg. 6-7pm) or does it mean that there are no slots left after the 3-4pm slot?
It means that up until 3pm there are usually FPs still available for that day. So if you were planning to use one at 2pm then get another, usually you’d be able to get one for this ride at that time. If you were planning to use one at 4pm then try for another, this ride probably wouldn’t be available.
Soarin doesn’t have terrible waits since they opened the 3rd theatre.
I agree with @awspoede. It depends on how many people are in your party, and how willing you are to keep refreshing. I was able to get Soarin’ fast passes for 3 people (on a CL 3 day) in the late afternoon, like 5:00, as our fourth FPP.
I don’t understand the 7DMT part of this first chart. How is that FPP run out at 60 days with a CL 1 and at 30 days with a CL 10? Shouldn’t that be reversed, or do they add a lot more FPP later on or something when CLs are predicted to be higher? (I know you didn’t write the article but maybe you understand it better than I do)
Most working theories I’ve seen are that they offer more FPP on a CL10 day than a CL1 day. With more fast passes available, they tend to last longer despite more people being at the park.
I’m not sure if number of FPP available have ever been confirmed though…
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One reason these working theories make sense is that many times TPTB will adjust ride operations for expected crowds… i.e. on an expected CL 2 day they know that they will have significantly shorter lines, so for some rides (roller coasters are particularly applicable here) they can remove ride units and run the ride with a smaller staff without increasing the lines too much. It thus follows that there would be fewer FPP per hour available to begin with on those days (because that number is determined mostly by ride capacity, which is lower when you remove ride units), and there would be significantly more available on the days when they expect to run at full capacity.
In addition to the ride capacity thing, they have a large incentive to try and control/alter the flow of crowds on the highest CL days, and increasing FPP numbers strategically can help with that quite a lot… if you make more FPP available for the rides at the back of the park first thing in the morning, and increase availability to EVERYTHING over the 12:00-1:00 lunch hour and the 5-7pm dinner hours then you will alter the tendency many people have to just walk through the gates and ride things in the order in which they appear, with stops for lunch at noon and dinner between 5 and 7. This will help spread the crowds out to the various lands right from RD and ease the congestion and wait times for non-ride things at their traditional peak hours.