Thanks for the reply @fred
Fred,
Thanks very much for the response.
I’ll trust your numbers on “Jersey week”.
However, I’m not sure I completely understand your response to the Labor Day aspect.
Were last year’s pre-Labor Day numbers in the 1-level, like this year’s 1st week in September numbers?
Perhaps a more specific question would be:
Is the software comparing this year’s 1st week of September to last year’s 1st week in September,
or last year’s last week of August? Last year, Labor Day was September 1.
I think it matters because this year, NYC schools (& other school districts) will be closed before Labor Day, which includes the 1st week of September.
If you have them, how were the numbers/crowd levels in 2009 (NYC schools didn’t start until Sept 9 like this year), or 2004 (didn’t start until Sept 13)?
Just trying to compare apples to apples. 
Also, I have another question.
On the crowd calendar:
One of your descriptions for June says, " Watch out for Gay Days in early June
which brings large crowds to a specific park each day. "
And yet…
Saturday June 6 is the lowest number on the crowd calendar
for MK that week (and it’s open until 2am EMH to boot & EMH
tends to boost crowds?), and Sunday June 7 is the lowest number
for Epcot for a month on either side.
This seems contradictory to me.
We’re looking to do MK/EP that weekend and the crowd calendar
seems to say, “If you want to miss the crowds, go on the gay days”,
while your description says otherwise. As of now, I’ve planned to
go on the gay days based on the crowd level numbers (and to take
advantage of the EMH), but if you think that the gay days will actually
bring larger crowds, I may have to re-think that approach.
Many thanks for all you do; this is a tremendous resource.
These are great questions. I’ll be following. Thanks everyone for the information so far.
So do NYC schools usually start before Labor Day? Why are they starting so late this year with Labor Day being so late?
NYC schools always start after Labor Day.
But Labor Day can be as early as Sept 1, or as late as Sept 7.
And if we’re comparing to last year’s numbers, last year was Sept 1, this year is Sept 7.
So are we comparing pre-Labor Day to pre-Labor Day (which seems like the way to go intuitively),
or 1st week in Sept to 1st week in Sept (which seems to have very different circumstances).
Last year I was in the parks the weekend and Monday of Labor Day and it was still very light in terms of crowds. I will be repeating that plan this year. So I could see (and hope) that the crowds could still be very light even pre-Labor Day.
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That’s very encouraging to know, thanks!
In Michigan, schools can not start until after Labor Day by law. If we didn’t already have a November trip planned, I would being going that week. I’ll be interested to see what the reports of the crowds are that week.
So for NYC, Michigan and other places, do schools start on the Tuesday after Labor Day? Then Labor Day would hopefully be pretty light, especially in he afternoon as it will be a travel day for all those not skipping school the first day.
As far as my schedule, I’m here in southern Florida. My DD3 starts preschool a couple of weeks prior to Labor Day (same as the elementary attached to the preschool) but gets Labor Day off. I teach college and start a week before Labor Day, and also am off for Labor Day…but I’m also on a MWF teaching schedule, so I’m actually off until Wednesday that week. So we’re leaving the Friday before, going to the parks Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and then driving home Tuesday. So my DD will miss one day of preschool, but that won’t be a big deal, and I won’t miss any face-time at work. We’re hoping especially that Monday at MK will be not very crowded, as that was the case last year when we had the same situation. So we have a big day at MK planned for Labor Day.
In NYC, the students almost always start on the Wednesday after Labor Day, though the teachers usually begin on Tuesday with a “staff” day. There was one year (2004) when they didn’t start until the Monday after, with the previous week being all “staff” days.
FWIW, here’s a mini-historical look at NYC school openings when Labor Day is late:
2009, started Wed Sep 9:
http://schools.nyc.gov/NR/rdonlyres/F5C4C865-B4FF-45BE-A396-536C0695EEDB/64858/20092010SchoolYearCalendarRev.pdf
2004, started w/staff days & didn’t start until Mon Sept 13,
would have loved to have done the week after Labor Day that year:
http://schools.nyc.gov/NR/rdonlyres/512E9FDA-7FF6-4C5D-8151-5F7EC982C2F7/0/20042005SchoolYearCalendar.pdf
1999, Thu Sept 9:
http://schools.nyc.gov/NR/rdonlyres/B533F677-7A2B-430D-80A7-D571A4EE61BF/0/19992000SchoolYearCalendar.pdf
1998, Wed Sept 9:
http://schools.nyc.gov/NR/rdonlyres/074C014A-0968-4E79-BC4E-CC2547721B22/0/19981999SchoolYearCalendar.pdf
1992, Wed Sept 9:
http://schools.nyc.gov/NR/rdonlyres/3228D275-6336-42C9-8897-72A7558F4514/0/19921993SchoolYearCalendar.pdf
@eriinfo I don’t think you’ll have any problems on Labor Day if these photos from last year – when Labor Day was on Sept 1 – are any indication:
Unfortunately, due to plane fares being cheaper Sunday night & my wife not wanting to be traveling after Labor Day, we’re leaving Sunday evening & won’t be able to actually experience Labor Day.
Perhaps you can take some great empty-park pictures for us, and post them here so we can live vicariously through you.
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I was in MK that day! Although did not get to meet up with any other Liners unfortunately. With a little one we tried to keep up with her as well as getting some things in for ourselves.
I didn’t get many pictures, either. So I’ll try to do better this year and see what I can do. I do remember it being very not crowded, as the pictures show. The only time I remember there being somewhat of a crowd is when the FoF parade went by, so that many people were lined up to see it.
I believe @Star_Wisher said that her family in the morning was the only ones on the teacups.
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So if the NYC and Michigan and whatever other schools don’t start until the Wednesday or later after Labor Day EVERY year, you would think that this year MK will be at least as empty as last year, and maybe more so with Labor Day happening later, so that more schools elsewhere may already be in session. Last year Labor Day was a 1, so I think it is reasonable to expect it to be a 1 again. But you never know!
Also, @ejj, I expect just before Labor Day when you are there will also be very nice in terms of crowds.
It may never happen for me, but I would just love to spend a week in WDW in mid-September as some people are doing.
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Hi everyone,
Thanks for sharing my post and photos @ejj! We actually were the only family riding on teacups and it was awesome. I hope to return over Labor Day weekend again one day. It will be a little more crowded when we return on 11/20 this year.
I agree that labor day weekend and labor day itself will probably be similar. I think the original question was regarding the 1st week in September, which has different circumstances this year as many schools will not have started yet and they had at that time last year.
I am interested in this too as it looks like we will be changing our reservations to the week leading up to Labor Day due to the availability of rooms for the free dining promo. The current availability of dining reservations for that week may be a good indicator of quiet crowds!
However i think part of why they are saying low the week prior (we are in upstate ny and our school goes back Wednesday the 9th) is that although the schools that never open before Labor Day won’t be open (and haven’t been open), other schools will have been back for a while and that will be reflected in the crowds.
Other crowd predictions show high levels and that makes me nervous too! Anyone I talk to though that traveled during that time has said it was very quiet
Well, with the latest TP crowd calendar updates, most of those “1” level days the 1st week of September are pretty much gonzo. I’m not surprised, and the numbers seem more realistic to me.
@Len, was there something that drove the numbers to change now, rather than earlier? Were there park operating schedule changes, or hotel booking numbers released by WDW to indicate? I’m curious as to what drives these & when. 
Looks like “Jersey week” and the week after got the “bump up” too. sigh… all the more reason for TP w/RD, eh?
I just noticed changes to my week in mid-Nov, too - going from mostly 1-3 to 3-5. I mean, that’s still good, just not quite what I had originally expected a full week+ before Thanksgiving.
Does some of this have to do with increased resort traffic due to Free Dining?
FYI, Fred blogged about this a few weeks ago with a more detailed explanation regarding September: