@brlink - I completely agree with all you points. It drives me insane when people say “this isn’t a 5, I’ve been on a 5 before” - back in 2010 during a major recession :). It’s hard for people to quantify what these numbers mean. Most want them to mean something static - that’s how the brain works with 1-10 scales. We are going in July with 8-10 and I am not worried :).
FYI - Most of us “laymen” are not too stupid to understand math. We are simply trying to cope with last minute extreme changes in crowd level predictions, and how to best revise our plans, given that the predictions have changed. Thanks.
@Frank - I agree totally with what you say - it is frustrating when these levels change that close in, there should be incremental adjustments that as dates get closer, and not 2 big year long adjustment.
But most people do not really understand the math behind how this crowd calendar works - I will definitely stand by that. I was responding to Fred (even referred to him by name) about the need to balance - not you personally :).
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I think this is not only a good analogy but an important one. Getting upset with the Touring Plans team for changing the Crowd Level forecast is exactly like getting upset with the weather forecaster for changing their forecast from sun to rain. “But I based my vacation around these forecasts!” Forecasts change. It’s a huge bummer when that happens but it happens.
Of course, the times of year with better crowds are still the times of year with better crowds. Mid-September will still have lower crowds that Presidents Day and late January will still have lower crowds than Easter or Fourth of July.
I find the internals of how this works and the best way to present the information very interesting. On one hand - like TP says - they want to be as accurate as possible. But this is also a product targeted to all consumers - why should people need to understand the intricacies of how the stats work - we just want a good meaningful rating that we can understand. The consumers do not want to have to also read instructions on how to interpret. And the reality is that no one can predict the future - and the farther out we look at crowds - the more “rough” the estimates are, but the consumers expect the calendar for 1 month out and for 1 year out to be equally accurate. I would expect as time to the trip gets closer - the crowd calendar would get more accurate, but leaving these numbers static and only adjusting twice a year causes this massive swing - which is very disconcerting to everyone. This is just my thoughts - I definitely do not envy these decisions that have to be made on the TP side.
As @kevin_krom and @keithloveswaffles have begun to suggest, I’d fully support a Nigel Tufnel crowd level.
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So for my January 23 trip, am I correct in my understanding that I should expect two major adjustments from now until then? One when official park hours and showtimes are announced and another roughly six months from now when the next semiannual refresh occurs?
After my last (Nov) trip, when “actual” crowd levels (posted after the fact) were ALL 2-3 points higher than the levels predicted on TP (with equally “off” wait times), I take the whole crowd calendar with a grain of salt. Between the ever-growing number of people going to WDW, and the standard distrubution algorithm based on a constantly shifting mean, the CL numbers have become difficult to interprate a concrete way. I think that moving from a linear algorithm to a standard distribution algorithm has also caused some confusion (and has made comparisons between “before” and “after” the change virtually impossible). I think I preferred the “old” system, but I’m sure that the current system has more statistical “validity”.
Seeing jumps like this can certainly be disconcerting, but I would have MUCH preferred to know that I was going to have 6s and 7s vice 3s and 4s BEFORE I got there; I would have had a very different mindset, and would probably have been a lot less stressed…
I think the single most important thing that we have to remember is that we cannot compare a “5” this year to a “5” a couple of years ago. A 5 will be relatively more crowded than a 2 and relatively less crowded than an 8, but because the overall population size in WDW is growing every year, the mean keeps shifting to the right; the absolute number of people on a “5” day this year might be closer to the absolute number of people on a “7” day several years ago.
I don’t want this to be read as a criticism of TP. We have been provided with an invaluable tool - but as with any tool, you have to know how it works, hot to used it effectively, and understand what it can and cannot do.
In the OCD-touched world of extreme planning in which we (myself included) live, it’s really easy to get hung up on specific numbers. I think using the TP toolset in more of a qualitative way than a quantitative way is the way to get the most out of it - and to have a less stressful vacation.
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Thanks everyone. We will just had to deal… Going to make the best of it and not try to ride/do everything. Atleast we have boys so no princess stuff 
@fred Can you please confirm that all of the changes in crowd level predictions have been incorporated into the personalized TP programs? I changed weeks, and want to know that my new TP’s will reflect all updated information. Thanks.
I hear you Frank_Cz. I updated my touring plans and they did change, overall not more than 10-15 minutes longer to finish the same steps with a CL 6 jump to CL 9 -so my guess is yes, the CL update is in sinc with customized touring plans.
I think maybe CL 7 will feel the same as a newly categorized 9, and the wait times changed due to back to school schedules shifting a week later for more schools than anticipated at the last update.
My biggest issue with this update is the change to CL categorizations. I have no frame of reference. A brief description of the changes to the categories would have helped.
I don’t believe that the CL categorizations changed much, or at least enough to make a major impact, like making a day that would have been assigned a 7 now assigned a 9. This is just a wild-ass guess, so perhaps @fred can jump in with more details.
At any rate, the important things is not the CL designation, but the actual wait times in your plan. As they only jumped 10-15 minutes, your day isn’t affected that much. 
Thanks for your thoughts on my wild ass guess @brklinck, it came from Fred’s post. As for your opinion on how it affects my day, you are off. I’ve never gone on a CL9 day. Not that it is any of your business, but I’m thinking of changing my holiday destination actually.
Actually, it was my wild-ass guess that the categorizations did not change much, which is why I tagged @Fred to elaborate. I read the article as well, but I did not think that it would make much sense for them to be radically changed, as it would make comparisons over time useless.
As for how much if would affect your day, you were the one who stated that it only changed things by 10-15 minutes, not me. It that is going to ruin your vacation, then I feel sorry for you.t
I vote to add an 11.
If the swings are going to be this significant then you need to adjust your levels more often. We are going the first week in June and I just received notification in the last week and a half that several parks are jumping quite a bit. With the amount of planning that goes into a Disney trip it would have been good to have known these numbers further out than a few weeks, at which point it’s nearly impossible to alter my plans. I pay for your service and I’m extremely disappointed with this.
@Allianne87 I wouldn’t be too worried, just follow a good touring plan, take it easy, and enjoy the magic. We go every year in August and will be there 14-20 this year. I would be worried too if it wasn’t for the fact that we went during Easter this year and saw 9s and 10s. We stuck to our TP and would re-optimize as needed. I feel we got more in than during our slower August/early December trips. Hit RD and stick to your break times, it too easy to try and squeeze in one more ride with little ones and you only end up with a meltdown on Main Street.
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I’ll take your pity for a dime.
Deep breath. The service you are paying for encompasses much more than just crowd predictions. This is like blaming the weatherman for rain. Disney is crowded. The economy is better and people are out and about again.
Use your touring plan, take breaks and chill out. If you go in to a vacation with the attitude that you’ve already been cheated, it’s probably going to become a self fulfilling prophesy.
Or you could stay home. That’s my trip window too and it will make the crowds lighter. I am totally kidding, so don’t get more uptight. It’s a vacation in Disney. Have fun! It will be ok. Really.
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Alter your plans? Did you expect your subscription entitled you an assurance of low crowd? You have selected to visit the Number 1 attraction in the US in the high season. TP can’t limit admissions but following one of the TP will help you get the most out of your time.